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토요일, 6월 29, 2024

Silver price registered gains of 0.49% as inflationary figures released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) dipped as expected, reigniting Fed rate cut hopes amongst investors.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver up 0.49, boosted by lower US inflation data and Fed rate cut prospects.Technical analysis shows bearish trends; RSI indicates selling pressure with lower highs, lower lows.Resistance levels: $29.19 (50-DMA), $31.54 (June 7 high), $32.00, $32.51 (YTD high).Support points: $29.00, $28.28 (June 10, 2021, high), $28.00, $27.01 (May 8 low), $26.82 (100-DMA).Silver price registered gains of 0.49% as inflationary figures released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) dipped as expected, reigniting Fed rate cut hopes amongst investors. Therefore, the Greenback edged lower, while XAG/USD traded at $29.13 after hitting a daily low of $28.78. XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook After forming a quasi ‘double top,’ the Silver price extended its losses, which amounted to more than 10% after it peaked at around $32.51 on May 20. The uptrend seems exhausted, as shown by different signals: momentum shifted bearishly as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entered seller territory, while successive series of lower highs and lower lows confirm the change of the trend. If buyers want to regain control, they must clear the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $29.19. Once hurdle, the next level would be the June 7 high of $31.54. Clearing this would aim for $32.00 before challenging the year-to-date (YTD) high of $32.51. Conversely, and the path of least resistance, if XAG/USD slides below $29.00 that could put into play the June 10, 2021, high turned support at $28.28, ahead of exposing the psychological $28.00 mark. Key support levels lie underneath the latter, with the May 8 swing low of $27.01 up next before challenging the 100-DMA at $26.82. XAG/USD Price Action – Daily ChartEconomic Indicator Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US).. The MoM figure compares prices in the reference month to the previous month. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Jun 28, 2024 12:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 0%Consensus: 0%Previous: 0.3%Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis  

On Friday, the NZD/JPY cross made significant strides, gaining momentum and setting new cycle highs beyond 98.00.

NZD/JPY's bullish run persists as the cross surges past 98.00, marking fresh highs since 2007.The 20-day SMA provides robust support at 96.90.The strong bullish outlook stays intact, but a consolidation looms.On Friday, the NZD/JPY cross made significant strides, gaining momentum and setting new cycle highs beyond 98.00. Notably, this represents the pair's highest position since 2007, substantiating the strong bullish bias. However, given the overbought conditions, a healthy correction would be necessary. The daily chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI) value now sits at 68, entering the overbought territory. This demonstrates a continued bullish advance from earlier in the week, indicating that positive momentum still drives the pair. Despite these strong bullish indicators, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is not turning out green bars, suggesting that buyers may be losing their momentum. NZD/JPY daily chart Going forward, market participants keep a keen eye on the immediate support level of 97.00, with additional support at 96.90, close to the 20-day SMA and the previous low of 95.00. Moreover, they have trained their sights on the resistance targets of 98.50 and 99.00. A decisive breach above the ongoing range will provide further confirmation of the upside potential while slipping beneath the 20-day SMA could signal a more profound correction.

EUR/USD pivoted into a sideways grind on Friday, wrapping up a flat trading week after Fiber traders found little reason to push the pair meaningfully in either direction.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD wraps up trading week at familiar technical levels near 1.0700.German data broadly missed the mark early Friday.US PCE inflation met expectations, but good mood was brief.EUR/USD pivoted into a sideways grind on Friday, wrapping up a flat trading week after Fiber traders found little reason to push the pair meaningfully in either direction. German import prices and labor figures broadly miss the mark, and US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation failed to spark a meaningful bid despite printing at forecasts. German Unemployment Change clocked in higher than expected, showing 19K German consumers were added to unemployment figures in June. This is more than the forecast 15K, but still below the previous month’s 25K. The German Unemployment Rate also ticked higher to 6.0% versus the forecast hold at 5.9%.Forecasting the Coming Week: Data, politics and the ECB Forum take centre stageOn the US side, Core PCE Price Index inflation ticked down for the year ended May, cooling to 2.6% from the previous 2.8%. While the decline in key inflation readings will be a welcome addition to recent inflation data, it failed to spark a meaningful risk-on bid for investors as the figure was nowhere near cool enough to drive the Federal Reserve (Fed) towards an accelerated pace of interest rate cuts. US Personal Income rose 0.5% MoM in May compared to the forecast 0.4% and previous 0.3%, but US Personal Spending came in at 0.2% versus the forecast 0.3%, and the previous print saw a slight downside revision to 0.1% from the initial 0.2%. The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 68.2 in June, up from the previous 65.6 and climbing over the forecast 65.8. However, UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations ticked down to 3.0% in June, down from the previous 3.1% but inflation expectations continue to ride well above the Fed’s inflation target of 2% annually. Coming up next week, European inflation numbers will be landing on markets early in the week with German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures on Monday, followed by pan-EU HICP inflation on Tuesday. Next week also marks the next US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor data dump, slated for next Friday. EUR/USD technical outlook The Fiber ran directly into technical barriers on Friday, getting swamped out at the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0715. The pair continue to battle with the 1.0700 handle, and bidders have been thus far failing to throw off a near-term pattern of lower highs. EUR/USD daily candlesticks continue to grind out a rough consolidation pattern as the pair struggles on the low side of the 200-day EMA at 1.0788. As buyers continue to show signs of exhaustion, a downside break to 2024’s bottom bids at 1.0600 becomes increasingly likely. EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos dipped from previous 102.95B to -174.07B in May

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