ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

15:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in February: Actual (0.3%)
Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in February: Actual (0.3%)

15:26 WH Economic Adviser Hassett: Making enormous progress on tariff talks with EU
In an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), said that they are making "enormous progress" on tariff talks with the European Union, per Reuters.

14:45 CAD in focus ahead of inflation and BoC meeting – Danske Bank
Tariff exemptions from the US offered temporary support to the dollar, but broader concerns about credibility and economic weakness continue to weigh. With market correlations breaking down and investor confidence shaken, USD pressure may persist in the near term, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

Tariff exemptions from the US offered temporary support to the dollar, but broader concerns about credibility and economic weakness continue to weigh. With market correlations breaking down and investor confidence shaken, USD pressure may persist in the near term, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. BoC poised for insurance rate cut amid trade uncertainty "This week will be eventful in CAD FX space, starting with the March inflation report on Tuesday, and culminating in the key event - the BoC meeting on Wednesday. Minutes from the last BoC meeting largely confirmed that the BoC would have paused in March if not for heightened tariff uncertainty." "We don't think that the uncertainty has diminished since and thus expect the Boc to deliver another "insurance" 25bp rate cut. Markets are more tilted towards the BoC staying on hold, pricing in around 28% probability of a rate cut." "Note that the BoC also releases its quarterly MPR, which naturally should remain relatively focused on tariffs and their spillover effects on the Canadian economy."

14:39 USD/CNH: Likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now – UOB Group
Chance for US Dollar (USD) to dip below 7.2700; the major support at 7.2430 seems to be out of reach. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook; USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now.

Chance for US Dollar (USD) to dip below 7.2700; the major support at 7.2430 seems to be out of reach. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook; USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now. Short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to weaken last Friday, but we indicated that 'oversold conditions suggest any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 7.2430. We added, 'there is another support at 7.2700.' USD fell less than expected to 7.2788. Although there has been no further increase in downward momentum, there is a chance for USD to dip below 7.2700. The major support at 7.2430 still seems to be out of reach. Resistance levels are at 7.3150 and 7.3350." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from last Friday (11 Apr, spot at 7.3100) still stands. As highlighted, the recent 'sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook.' For the time being, we expect USD to “trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700.”

14:35 TRY: Keeping an eye on inflation expectations ahead of rate meeting – Commerzbank
The latest version of market inflation expectations, published on Friday by Turkey’s central bank (CBT) showed inflation expectation for end-2025 rising by 2pp from 28% to 30%. The margin is not insignificant.

The latest version of market inflation expectations, published on Friday by Turkey’s central bank (CBT) showed inflation expectation for end-2025 rising by 2pp from 28% to 30%. The margin is not insignificant. Just to recall, in the previous March survey, which had been cited by a jubilant minister Simsek on social media, inflation expectations for end-2025 had fallen from 28.3% to 28%. As an aside, longer-term expectations always move by less – inevitably, visibility is higher in the near term – hence, it is of no comfort that one-year and two-year forward expectations rose by less, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. Lira’s fundamental troubles aren't over"A few subsidiary findings could be of interest: for example, the survey implies that CBT’s current projections are already outdated – CBT currently forecasts 24% inflation for end-2025, with a tolerance ceiling of 29%; even the most bullish among survey participants now forecast faster than 29% inflation. Another observation would be that this market survey puts the consensus forecast for USD/TRY (end-2025) at 43.6 and for one-year ahead (so end-March 2026) at 45.9, which are more bearish than our own respective 42.0 and 43.0, for the same timeframes. Perhaps, we are not cautious enough.""Last but not least, other inflation measures such as the Istanbul cost of living index (which is recording c.50% inflation), household inflation expectations (which are collected as part of another survey and are stuck at a much higher c.60%), as well as polls and analysis conducted by Reuters, Bloomberg and the Koc University point to escalating inflation expectations. This is not an environment to start considering rate cuts again.""It is true that USD/TRY drifted below the 38.0 ‘line of defence’ briefly after US tariffs were paused, the oil price was low and risk assets were rallying, but this was hardly a sign that the lira’s fundamental troubles are over. We see significant risk to the exchange rate in the event CBT considers resuming rate cuts in the coming months."

14:32 USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a 142.30/144.30 range – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 142.30/144.30 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 142.30/144.30 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD can continue to decline24-HOUR VIEW: "USD plunged last Thursday. On Friday, we indicated that 'further USD weakness is not ruled out.' We also indicated that 'support levels are at 143.05 and 142.50.' The expected decline exceeded our expectations as USD plummeted to 142.05 before rebounding sharply to close at 143.51 (-0.65%). The rebound in deeply oversold conditions suggests USD is unlikely to weaken further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a 142.30/144.30 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding a negative USD view since early this month, we indicated last Friday (11 Apr, spot at 143.80) that “the renewed momentum suggests USD is likely to continue to decline.” We pointed out, “mid-term support levels are at 142.50 and 139.55.” USD then fell and exceeded 142.50 (low of 142.05). There is no change in our view, but given the oversold conditions, it remains to be seen whether 139.55 is within reach this time round. On the upside, a breach of 145.50 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 146.30 last Friday) would indicate that USD is not weakening further."

14:27 Does the weakness of the USD make it easier for other central banks? – Commerzbank
In addition to the flight to safe havens, the prospect of a further normalisation of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan is also likely to have supported the yen recently. According to statements made by BoJ Chairman Kazuo Ueda this morning, however, the central bank is leaving all options open.

In addition to the flight to safe havens, the prospect of a further normalisation of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan is also likely to have supported the yen recently. According to statements made by BoJ Chairman Kazuo Ueda this morning, however, the central bank is leaving all options open. This is because the impact of US tariffs on inflation is not clear, i.e. it could be inflationary or disinflationary, Commerzbank's FX analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Seems highly unlikely that the effect of the tariffs will be reversed"Megan Greene, MPC member of the Bank of England, also explained why this is not clear. It is relatively straightforward that the US tariffs will not only harm economic growth in the US, but also its trading partners. However, the USD exchange rate makes it difficult to assess inflation." "This is because, as we have already explained here, the US tariffs should have led to an appreciation of the US currency. This in turn would have been inflationary for trading partners. However, as the dollar has now depreciated, the effect via the exchange rate channel is disinflationary." "If this remains the case, most central banks will be spared a dilemma: weighing up economic and inflation risks. A decision in favour of a more expansionary monetary policy would be easier, which in turn would weaken the appreciation pressure against the dollar. For the moment at least, it seems highly unlikely that the effect of the tariffs will be reversed (without the tariffs being lifted)."

14:26 US Dollar continues to bleed on firming US economic risks
The US Dollar (USD) continues to face an intense selling pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) sliding to near 99.50. The USD Index has extended its losing streak for the third trading day amid escalating trade war between the United States (US) and China.

14:20 NZD/USD: The next major resistance at 0.5905 is likely out of reach for now – UOB Group
The next major resistance for NZD/USD at 0.5905 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, NZD is expected to strengthen; the level to watch is 0.5905, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The next major resistance for NZD/USD at 0.5905 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, NZD is expected to strengthen; the level to watch is 0.5905, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD is expected to strengthen24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated last Friday that 'further NZD strength is not ruled out', but we pointed out, 'it may not be able to maintain a foothold above 0.5785.' We were correct on the first count, but incorrect on the second, as NZD surged to a high of 0.5839. Strong momentum suggests NZD could rise above 0.5855 today. The next major resistance at 0.5905 is likely out of reach for now. Support levels are at 0.5800 and 0.5770." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "NZD rose sharply last Thursday. On Friday (11 Apr), when it was at 0.5750, we stated that 'the increase in momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained advance.' We added that NZD 'must first close above 0.5785 before a move to 0.5855 can be expected, and the likelihood of NZD closing above 0.5785 will remain intact as long as 0.5660 is not breached.' We underestimated the momentum as NZD closed decisively above 0.5785 at 0.5824, up by 1.45%. We continue to expect NZD strength from here, and the level to watch is 0.5905. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 0.5740 from 0.5660."

14:14 US: Trump is backpadeling further – Commerzbank
And the backpedaling continues. In addition to the three-month tariff pause, the US government has now also expanded its list of goods exempt from reciprocal tariffs. This now includes all kinds of electronic goods.

And the backpedaling continues. In addition to the three-month tariff pause, the US government has now also expanded its list of goods exempt from reciprocal tariffs. This now includes all kinds of electronic goods. The US Secretary of Commerce pointed out that the exemption is only temporary and that the products will soon be subject to sectoral tariffs. However, it can be assumed that these will be lower than initially planned, especially for the most important supplier, China, Commerzbank's FX analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Trump under pressure to rethink trade tactics"There is a growing suspicion that Trump is not only giving in to pressure from the markets, but also from individual voices of affected US companies. They seem to have made it clear to him that ‘Made in the USA’ is not as simple as the tariff enthusiasts had imagined. Apart from obvious factors such as lower wages, it is the availability of skilled labour that has made China the world's workbench.""The US leadership's recent relenting - at least as far as tariffs against China are concerned - is a further indication that Trump is showing some understanding. If US economic momentum slows significantly over the next three months, there is a chance that he will distance himself further from the tough tariff policy. This is initially good news for the US dollar, even if the market does not really believe it at the moment.""I believe that the US government's current favoured tools to reduce the US trade deficit will not be effective. That would leave one other remedy: a weaker US currency. Irrespective of how this weakening would take place: Through a coordinated intervention by the major central banks (a new Plaza Accord, so to speak) or through the continued erosion of the dollar's status as a safe haven — a ‘rebalancing’ of foreign trade through an exchange rate devaluation, especially if it is not only strong but also occurs in a very short amount of time, is also associated with economic pain."

14:08 EUR/CHF: Tests Key Support at 0.9210 – Société Générale
EUR/CHF is testing a critical support level at 0.9210 after losing the 200-DMA earlier this month. A sustained break lower could open the door to deeper declines towards 0.9155 and 0.9050/0.9025, while resistance looms near the 200-DMA at 0.9410/0.9430, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/CHF is testing a critical support level at 0.9210 after losing the 200-DMA earlier this month. A sustained break lower could open the door to deeper declines towards 0.9155 and 0.9050/0.9025, while resistance looms near the 200-DMA at 0.9410/0.9430, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Break below range could trigger further losses"EUR/CHF gave up the 200-DMA earlier this month resulting in a swift decline. It is probing the lower limit of the range withing which it has evolved since last August at 0.9210. This is a crucial support." "If the pair establishes below 0.9210, the phase of downtrend could extend towards next projections at 0.9155 and 0.9050/0.9025. The 200-DMA at 0.9410/0.9430 is likely to be a short-term resistance zone."

14:05 CHF: How fast is too fast for the SNB? – Commerzbank
The Swiss franc benefited significantly from its safe-haven status after the announcement of the reciprocal US tariffs. However, the rapid appreciation is likely to be a thorn in the side of the SNB.

The Swiss franc benefited significantly from its safe-haven status after the announcement of the reciprocal US tariffs. However, the rapid appreciation is likely to be a thorn in the side of the SNB. As long as the appreciation does not continue at this pace, markets do not expect significant intervention. And as Trump has since backtracked on his tariffs, markets no longer expect any further significant appreciation, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. SNB to swallow the pill of a stronger franc"In the first few months of the year, the Swiss franc did not look particularly good. In particular, when the euro made a comeback on the back of the German fiscal package and was able to appreciate significantly, EUR/CHF went up quite a bit. Nevertheless, we have long argued that there is a strong case to be made for lower EUR/CHF levels. Following the US President's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, things moved very quickly: instead of trading at just under 0.96, EUR/CHF is now trading three cents lower, i.e. the franc has appreciated significantly.""The strong appreciation of the CHF is unlikely to please the SNB. Over the past year, it has repeatedly warned of the inflationary dangers of too strong a franc. A strong franc reduces imported inflation, which ultimately leads to lower price pressure for all goods. And since inflation in Switzerland is generally chronically low, the SNB pays particular attention to factors that could exacerbate this situation.""We expect the Swiss franc to have some upside potential against the euro in the coming months. In our view, the euro euphoria surrounding the German fiscal package is somewhat overdone. The package is unlikely to be reflected in stronger German growth figures until next year. However, the unwinding of expectations is likely to be much slower than the recent CHF movement, which somewhat reduces the incentive for the SNB to respond with more FX interventions. As a result, we expect the SNB to swallow the pill of a stronger franc for the time being."

14:00 Gold rebounds sharply after early april dip – Société Générale
Gold staged a strong V-shaped recovery after an early April pullback, holding key support near $3135. Despite overbought signals, momentum remains intact, with eyes now on the next upside targets at $3290 and $3345/3370, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Gold staged a strong V-shaped recovery after an early April pullback, holding key support near $3135. Despite overbought signals, momentum remains intact, with eyes now on the next upside targets at $3290 and $3345/3370, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Momentum builds despite stretched indicators"Gold experienced a brief pullback in first week of April and approached the 50-DMA. It carved out a low near $2955 and has evolved within a V-shaped recovery. Daily MACD is registering multi-month highs denoting a stretched move; however, signals of a meaningful decline are not yet visible." "March high at $3135/3128 is first layer of support. Defence of this can result in continuation of uptrend. Next projections are located at $3290 and $3345/3370."

13:50 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds onto gains near $32.30 as US-China trade war intensifies
Siver price (XAG/USD) clings to Friday’s gains near $32.30 during European trading hours on Monday. The white metal exhibits strength as the US Dollar (USD) continues to dive amid the intensifying trade war between the United States (US) and China.

13:43 Oil: Tariff relief vs Iranian talks – ING
The oil market is quiet in early morning trading today, after settling lower for a second consecutive week last week. News that the Trump administration is offering tariff exemptions on certain electronics products initially supported risk assets.

The oil market is quiet in early morning trading today, after settling lower for a second consecutive week last week. News that the Trump administration is offering tariff exemptions on certain electronics products initially supported risk assets. Since then, uncertainty returned as President Trump suggested exemptions are only temporary -- and that other more specific tariffs could be introduced in due course. Meanwhile, market participants are digesting the implications of indirect weekend talks between the US and Iran, which were described as constructive. Further talks are planned. This may help remove some of the sanction risk affecting the oil market, particularly if talks keep on moving in the right direction, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Speculators slash Brent longs amid tariff uncertainty"Unsurprisingly, the latest positioning data shows that speculators reduced net longs in ICE Brent significantly over the last reporting week. Speculators sold 162,344 lots, leaving them with a net long of 155,838 lots as of last Tuesday. This was driven predominantly by longs liquidating. There also was also a small portion of new shorts entering the market. This marks the largest amount of speculative selling in a single week since at least 2015 -- and by quite a distance.""Already, the weakness in the oil market appears to be causing a pullback in drilling activity in the US. The latest data from Baker Hughes shows that the US oil rig count fell by 9 last week, leaving it at 480. That’s the largest weekly decline since June 2023. Current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices leave little incentive for US producers to drill. Prices remaining near current levels could result in further declines in drilling activity.""On the data front, China will release its first batch of trade data for March today, including crude oil imports and trade in refined products. OPEC will also release its latest monthly oil market report today. The group has been slower to adjust its demand growth estimates. It will be interesting to see if recent tariff developments prompt OPEC to revise demand estimates lower."

13:28 AUD/USD: Chance to test the key resistance at 0.6390 – UOB Group
Further AUD strength is not ruled out, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.6230/0.6330. In the longer run, AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Further AUD strength is not ruled out, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.6230/0.6330. In the longer run, AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Further AUD strength is not ruled out24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected AUD to 'strengthen further' last Friday, we indicated that 'the major resistance at 0.6290 seems to be out of reach.' However, AUD ultimately broke above 0.6290, reaching a high of 0.6301. Despite the advance, upward momentum has not increasedsignificantly. That said, further AUD strength is not ruled out, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.6230/0.6330. In other words, a sustained rise above 0.6330 is unlikely." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (10 Apr, spot at 0.6145), where we expected AUD to 'trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range for the time being.' AUD rose above 0.6290 last Friday (high of 0.6301) before closing at 0.6294, up by 1.09%. While we would prefer a more decisive close above 0.6290, the price action suggests that AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390. To sustain the momentum, AUD must remain above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6140."

13:24 Chinese Gold ETFs see record inflows – ING
Recent reports suggest that Chinese gold exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows reached a fresh daily record late last week. Investors continue to rush towards the yellow metal amid intensifying trade tensions.

Recent reports suggest that Chinese gold exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows reached a fresh daily record late last week. Investors continue to rush towards the yellow metal amid intensifying trade tensions. According to Bloomberg data, inflows into China’s four major gold ETFs reached a record of nearly 3 billion yuan (US$410M) on Thursday, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.COMEX speculators cut Gold exposure"Speculative interest in Comex gold futures remains muted. Weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data show that managed money net longs in COMEX gold decreased a third consecutive week by 38,088 lots to 138,465 lots as of 8 April. That’s the biggest weekly decline since 3 October 2023. Some of the selling could reflect meeting margin calls in other assets, given the recent volatility in broader markets.""Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) data shows that weekly inventories for all base metals fell over the reporting week. Copper led the decline with stocks falling by 42,795 tonnes for a third consecutive week to 182,941 tonnes as of last Friday. This was the biggest weekly decline since April 2020, taking total inventories to the lowest since the end of January 2025." "There are suggestions that domestic manufacturers and traders bought huge volumes of copper following the more recent weakness in prices. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories fell by 9,447 tonnes to 205,627 tonnes."

13:20 USD: Hard to sustain those levels of volatility – ING
Last week’s FX volatility reached crisis-like levels, sparking fears of deeper market stress. A breakdown in traditional correlations and talk of coordinated dollar devaluation suggest global investors are bracing for structural shifts in US policy, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Last week’s FX volatility reached crisis-like levels, sparking fears of deeper market stress. A breakdown in traditional correlations and talk of coordinated dollar devaluation suggest global investors are bracing for structural shifts in US policy, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Extreme FX volatility signals market stress"EUR/USD and USD/JPY briefly witnessed one week implied volatility trading at 20% late last week. That's extreme, and – barring a global financial crisis – those levels of volatility don't typically last for long. Thankfully, the financial plumbing system seems ok so far, and it's worth taking a quick look at what happened last week.""Much was made of the breakdown in the traditionally positive correlation between US yields and the dollar, leading a few commentators to start describing the US as an 'emerging market'. There have been a few, very rare periods over the past 30 years when US Treasury yields and the dollar have briefly diverged – normally at times of extreme stress. That seemed to be the case last week with heavy deleveraging in the US Treasury market, where the basis trade was probably being unwound.""But one theme that might develop further, and one that might be prompting the buy-side around the world to be raising the FX hedge ratios on their US investments, is this idea of a Mar-a-Lago accord. If this is some kind of blueprint for how Washington rewires the global trading system, then after oppressive tariffs, Washington tries to secure agreements on stronger currencies from trading partners. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been tasked with leading the trade negotiations with Japan and South Korea."

13:17 EUR/USD strengthens on mounting fears of US stagflation
EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1400 in Monday’s European session. The major currency pair aims to reclaim the over-three-year high of 1.1474, which it posted on Friday.

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The major currency pair aims to reclaim the over-three-year high of 1.1474, which it posted on Friday. The pair demonstrates sheer strength as the US Dollar (USD) continues to dive amid growing fears of United States (US) stagflation, a situation in which inflation increases, the economy deteriorates, and employment cools down.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, sees more downside below the recent lows of 99.00.Financial market participants are anticipating US stagflation amid deteriorating consumer sentiment and de-anchoring consumer inflation expectations. The University of Michigan (UoM) showed on Friday that the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index came in significantly lower at 50.8 in April, the lowest level seen since June 2022. US households are worried about the deepening risks of a recession due to the escalating tariff war with China.On Friday, China raised counter-tariffs on US goods imports to 125%, effective on Saturday. The Asian giant retaliated after US President Donald Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. Market participants expect the scenario of retaliation and countermeasures by both nations to hinder plans of fresh investments by business owners, which eventually would result in moderate economic growth.Meanwhile, flash 12-month forward UoM Consumer Inflation Expectations accelerated to 6.7% in April from 5% in March. Declining consumer sentiment and soaring consumer inflation expectations are expected to dampen the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to bring price pressures down in the last few years.On Friday, St. Louis Fed Bank President Alberto Musalem said that if the public begins to expect “inflation will remain high over the long term”, the job of restoring “price stability and maximum employment would be much more difficult".Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD strengthens at the start of ECB monetary policy weekEUR/USD edges higher as the Euro (EUR) shows strength at the start of monetary policy week. The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and it is expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25%. This would be the seventh 25 bps interest rate reduction by the ECB since June.Traders have become increasingly confident that the ECB will cut interest rates again amid expectations that the Trump-driven trade war will not be inflationary for the Eurozone. Investors expect that the escalating tariff war between the US and China would force the latter to export its products to the old continent. Eurozone importers would prefer Chinese products over domestically produced goods, given China’s low-cost competitive advantage. Such a scenario would offset the impact of Trump’s tariff-led inflation.Last week, ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said that a “25 bps rate cut is needed in April.” Šimkus added that the US tariff announcement warrants “more accommodative” monetary policy, and therefore, we need to move to a “less restrictive policy stance”.On trade relations with the US, European Union (EU) finance ministers have pledged unity in negotiating a trade deal with Washington. The unified response from the Euro area would slightly improve their position while discussing trade talks with the White House.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD climbs to near 1.1400EUR/USD rises to near 1.1400 during European trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair trades firmly as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) slope higher, suggesting a strong uptrend.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 80.00, indicating a strong bullish momentum.Looking up, the psychological resistance of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the 1.1200 region, which limited the EUR/USD advance in August and September, will be the key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. ,

12:56 GBP/USD: Outlook for GBP has shifted to positive – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), probably between 1.3000 and 1.3145. In the longer run, outlook for GBP has shifted to positive; the two technical levels to watch are 1.3210 and 1.3290, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), probably between 1.3000 and 1.3145. In the longer run, outlook for GBP has shifted to positive; the two technical levels to watch are 1.3210 and 1.3290, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.The two technical levels to watch are 1.3210 and 1.329024-HOUR VIEW: "Following the strong rise in GBP last Thursday, we highlighted on Friday that 'the impulsive momentum suggests further GBP strength, but it remains to be seen if 1.3100 is within reach.' The anticipated advance exceeded our expectations as GBP surged to 1.3146, closingat 1.3128 (+1.23%). Deeply overbought conditions, combined with tentative signs of slowing momentum, suggest that instead of continuing to rise, GBP is more likely to trade in a range today, probably between 1.3000 and 1.3145."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from last Friday (11 Apr, spot at 1.2990) remains valid. As highlighted, 'the outlook for GBP has shifted to positive, and the two technical levels to watch are 1.3210 and 1.3290.' We will maintain our view as long as 1.2880 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.2820 last Friday) is not breached."

12:52 GBP: Macro back in focus this week – ING
Sterling rallied against the dollar but sold off against the euro last week, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Sterling rallied against the dollar but sold off against the euro last week, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.EUR/GBP can have another run at the 0.8730 spike high"As a reserve currency, sterling is participating in this de-rating of the dollar. But euro liquidity is higher than sterling, and there is probably much more repatriation of financial assets into the eurozone than into the UK, given the bloc's large trade surplus with the US.""For this week, the sterling story could be driven more from the macro side. The focus tomorrow will be on the labour market and whether unemployment rose ahead of the introduction of higher employer taxes at the start of April. Wednesday will focus on inflation, where March services inflation is expected to drop to 4.8% year-on-year from 5.0%. Both pieces of data present downside risks to sterling.""EUR/GBP could have another run at the 0.8730 spike high, although a dovish ECB on Thursday could then send EUR/GBP lower."

12:50 EUR/USD: Rally may take a pause – UOB Group
Rally may take a pause; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.1240 and 1.1415 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, further EUR strength is not ruled out, but it may first range-trade for a couple of days.

Rally may take a pause; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.1240 and 1.1415 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, further EUR strength is not ruled out, but it may first range-trade for a couple of days. The next resistance is at 1.1500, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.The next resistance is at 1.150024-HOUR VIEW: "We pointed out last Friday that '1.1275 was the high in 2023.' We also pointed out that 'a break above 1.1275 could trigger a further rally' and 'the levels to monitor are 1.1350 and 1.1400.' The ensuing breakout above 1.1275 triggered a sharper than expected rally to 1.1473. EUR pulled back from the high to close at 1.1360, up by 1.46%. Given the pullback from deeply overbought territory, the rally may take a pause. Today, we expect EUR to trade between 1.1240 and 1.1415."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (11 Apr, spot at 1.1255), we indicate that EUR 'is likely to rally further, and the levels to monitor are 1.1400 and 1.1450. We did not expect EUR to surpassed both levels as quickly, as it jumped to a high of 1.1473. While further EUR strength is not ruled out, deeply overbought short-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of range-trading first. As long as 1.1180 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1070) is not breached, the EUR strength that started early this month could extend to 1.1500."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:30 EUR: Tracing out a new 1.12-1.15 EUR/USD range – ING
EUR/USD did some serious damage to the long-term charts last week and broke out of a bear trend which had roughly contained price action since 2008. 1.11/1.12 is now going to be important support, and presumably the buy-side (including both the private and public sectors) will now be EUR/USD buyers

EUR/USD did some serious damage to the long-term charts last week and broke out of a bear trend which had roughly contained price action since 2008. 1.11/1.12 is now going to be important support, and presumably the buy-side (including both the private and public sectors) will now be EUR/USD buyers on dips as they wait for the tariff shock to materialise in hard US data. EUR/USD breaks long-term bear trend"While it is tempting to embrace a 'sell America' mentality, the suggestion that China has been selling US Treasuries remains speculative. Fund flow data to last Wednesday showed that there were still net positive flows into the long end of the US Treasury market, even if the vast majority of flows went into money market funds and the short-end of the Treasury curve. Expect the March Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, released 16 May, to be scrutinised for Chinese selling of Treasuries.""This week, EUR/USD will probably be trapped between a medium-term trend change on a US slowdown and a more dovish European Central Bank. The ECB probably won't like the reality that the trade-weighted euro is surging to multi-decade highs, yet it will also acknowledge its benefit and safe haven properties of the second most liquid currency in the world. This will have some longer-term benefits for eurozone borrowing costs and has already seen German 10-year Bunds outperform Treasuries by 50bp over the last 10 days.""EUR/USD is trading way over any levels that short-term rate differentials would suggest. We don't want to stand in the way of a move to 1.15, but prefer a 1.12-1.15 range near term rather than an immediate push to 1.18/20."

12:07 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Hits fresh YTD top, bulls flirt with 200-day SMA near 0.5900
The NZD/USD pair is seen building on last week's solid recovery from the 0.5485 region, or its lowest level since March 2020, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction for the fourth successive day on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD scales higher for the fourth successive day on Monday amid sustained USD selling.The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for further appreciation.Corrective slides towards 0.5800 could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.The NZD/USD pair is seen building on last week's solid recovery from the 0.5485 region, or its lowest level since March 2020, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction for the fourth successive day on Monday. The buying interest remains unabated through the first half of the European session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and lifts spot prices to the 0.5900 neighborhood, or a fresh year-to-date high.The aforementioned handle represents a confluence hurdle comprising a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a multi-month-old ascending trend-line. Meanwhile, an intraday breakout above the 0.5825-0.5830 region, or the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the September 2024-April 2025 downfall could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained breakout and acceptance above the 0.5900 mark before positioning for further gains. Spot prices might then surpass the 50% Fibo. level, around the 0.5930-0.5935 region, and climb further towards the 0.6000 psychological mark en route to the 0.6035-0.6040 area, or the 61.8% Fibo. level. The subsequent move up will suggest that the NZD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.On the flip side, any corrective pullback now seems to find decent support near the 0.5825-0.5830 region (38.2% Fibo. level). This is followed by the 0.5800 mark, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and drag the NZD/USD pair to the 0.5765-0.5760 intermediate support en route to the 0.5700 round figure, or the 23.6% Fibo. level. The latter should act as a key pivotal point and strong base for spot prices. A convincing break below, however, might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

11:54 EUR/JPY moves sideways near 163.00, upside appears due to improved global risk mood
EUR/JPY experiences volatility during European hours on Monday, trading near the 163.00 mark. The Euro finds support as improved global risk sentiment boosts demand for risk-sensitive assets.

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The Euro finds support as improved global risk sentiment boosts demand for risk-sensitive assets. This optimism followed US President Donald Trump's announcement late Sunday of less severe tariffs on Chinese imports, including semiconductors and electronics.However, Trump clarified that previously speculated exemptions would not be granted. The affected goods will still face the existing 20% tariffs related to fentanyl rather than the much steeper 145% duties that had been suggested earlier.Meanwhile, German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz expressed concern over Trump’s economic strategy in an interview with Handelsblatt on Saturday. “President Trump’s policies are increasing the risk that the next financial crisis will hit sooner than expected,” he warned. Merz also advocated for a new transatlantic trade pact, proposing “Zero percent tariffs on everything—that would be better for both sides.”Despite the Euro’s gains, the upside for EUR/JPY cross may be limited. The Japanese Yen continues to draw support from safe-haven flows amid lingering concerns over the US-China trade tensions. Additionally, optimism around a potential US-Japan trade deal, alongside expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may continue tightening policy in 2025 due to broadening inflationary pressures, further underpins the Yen.Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba echoed these concerns on Monday, warning that US tariff actions could destabilize the global economic order. Addressing parliament, Ishiba stated, “I am fully aware that what has happened so far has the potential to disrupt the global economic order,” while reaffirming Japan’s commitment to cooperating with Washington on trade and security. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

11:41 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:13 Pound Sterling strengthens against US Dollar as consumer sentiment deteriorates
The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its winning streak for the fifth trading day against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.

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The GBP/USD pair jumps to near 1.3150 in Monday’s European session and aims to reclaim the six-month high of 1.3207, reached on April 3, as investors have dumped the US Dollar on the tit-for-tat tariff announcement between the United States (US) and China.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, declines to near 99.00, the lowest level seen in three years. US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs last week has significantly diminished the risk of a US recession. However, an exception for China has still kept the US Dollar on its toes. China raised counter-tariffs on US goods imports to 125% effective on Saturday. The motive behind Trump’s economic policies is to support domestic companies to onshore manufacturing facilities. However, business owners appear reluctant as they worry that Trump could reduce import duties again after securing a better deal from its trading allies, including China.Meanwhile, deteriorating consumer sentiment due to Trump’s protectionist policies has resulted in a sharp decline in the US Dollar. The University of Michigan (UoM) reported on Friday that the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index came in significantly lower at 50.8 in April, compared to estimates of 54.5 and the former reading of 57.0. On the monetary policy front, investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in the June meeting. However, Fed officials are reluctant to ascertain the economic outlook under Trump’s leadership. "It’s hard to know with any precision how the economy will evolve," New York Fed Bank President John Williams said on Friday.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling to be influenced by UK employment dataThe Pound Sterling demonstrates a different performance against its major peers at the start of the week. The British currency would get a clear direction after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) employment data for three months ending February and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.The UK labor market data is expected to show that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.4%. Average Earnings Including bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to have grown at a slower pace of 5.7%, compared to the 5.8% increase seen in the three months ending January. The core CPI – which excludes volatile items such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco – is estimated to have risen by 3.4% year-over-year in March, slower than February’s reading of 3.5%. Slower wage and core CPI growth would boost market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would reduce interest rates in the May meeting.BoE former deputy governor Charlie Bean warned in an interview with The Guardian last week that investment decisions by businesses would be delayed amid the fallout of tariff policies by US President Donald Trump. Bean supported an aggressive monetary policy easing and commented that the central bank should cut interest rates to 4%.UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has also signaled a difficult time for the nation in the face of Trump’s tariffs. In her column in Observer published over the weekend, Reeves said that Trump’s policies will have a “profound” effect on the UK. She signaled to work along the brewing trade war and strengthen the UK’s presence in the global market. “Now is not the time to turn our backs on the world,” Reeves said. She is ambitious about having a new trade relationship with the European Union (EU) along with constructive trade talks with the US.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rises to near 1.3150The Pound Sterling jumps to near 1.3150 against the US Dollar during European trading hours on Monday. The near-term outlook of the pair is upbeat as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00. A bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above this level.Looking down, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement plotted from late September high to mid-January low, near 1.2927, will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3430 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:12 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Falls toward 1.3800 after posting fresh six-month lows
The USD/CAD pair continues its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading near 1.3840 during early European hours on Monday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a prevailing bearish bias as the pair moves downward within the descending channel pattern.

10:48 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.05 per barrel, down from Friday’s close at $61.13. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $64.28 after its previous daily close at $64.45.

10:23 Forex Today: Risk mood improves to start week, US Dollar remains weak
Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 14:

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 14:The market sentiment improves at the beginning of the week as investors assess the latest headlines surrounding the US-China trade conflict. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases on Monday. Several Federal Reserve policymakers will be delivering speeches during the American trading hours. US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -3.92% -2.11% -2.12% -2.98% -4.51% -5.19% -4.83% EUR 3.92% 2.18% 2.52% 1.61% -0.66% -0.70% -0.34% GBP 2.11% -2.18% -0.96% -0.56% -2.78% -2.82% -2.46% JPY 2.12% -2.52% 0.96% -0.85% -1.49% -1.93% -2.43% CAD 2.98% -1.61% 0.56% 0.85% -1.91% -2.27% -2.17% AUD 4.51% 0.66% 2.78% 1.49% 1.91% -0.03% 0.33% NZD 5.19% 0.70% 2.82% 1.93% 2.27% 0.03% 0.37% CHF 4.83% 0.34% 2.46% 2.43% 2.17% -0.33% -0.37% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). US President Donald Trump's administration granted some technology imports, including smartphones, computers, laptops and disc drives, exemptions from the steep reciprocal tariffs imposed on China. These products will reportedly be subject to the 20% existing tariffs on China, which were related to the US fentanyl crisis, and be excluded from the additional 125%. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an ABC News interview on Sunday that these products, alongside semiconductors, will face separate new levies within the next two months. Following this development, US stock index futures trade decisively higher in the European morning on Monday. At the time of press, Nasdaq Futures were up 1.7% on the day.The US Dollar (USD) Index, which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, lost about 3% last week and touched its lowest level since April 2022 near 99.00. Following a technical correction heading into the weekend, the USD Index struggles to hold its ground on Monday and stays in negative territory below 99.30.During the Asian trading hours, the data from China showed that China's trade surplus narrowed to $102.64 billion in March from $170.51 billion in February. On a yearly basis, Exports grew by 13.5%, while Imports declined by 4.3% in March. After gaining more than 4% in the pervious week, AUD/USD continues to push higher and was last seen rising about 0.65% on the day at 0.6330.GBP/USD benefits from the persistent selling pressure surrounding the USD and trades above 1.3150 in the European morning. The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish February employment data on Tuesday.After losing more than 2% last week, USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and trades near 142.50 to start the European session. Earlier in the day, the data from Japan showed that Industrial Production expanded by 2.3% on a monthly basis in February, missing the market expectation for an increase of 2.5%.Gold gained more than 6% in the previous week and touched a new all-time high at $3,245 on Friday. Following a bearish opening to the new week, Gold reversed its traction and test the record-high before going into a consolidation phase. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading marginally lower on the day near $3,230.EUR/USD holds its ground and trades in positive territory near 1.1400 in the European morning after rising more than 3.5% last week. Eurostat will publish February Industrial Production data on Tuesday. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

10:00 Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-4.405B, below expectations ($-4.3B) in February
Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-4.405B, below expectations ($-4.3B) in February

09:53 India Gold price today: Gold retreats after a stellar week
Gold price in India has stalled its record rally as buyers take a breather after a stellar week.

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Gold price on Comex has entered an upside consolidative mode due to increased uncertainty around US tariffs on China, especially with the latest back and forth on tariffs on the Chinese electronics supply chain. As of writing, Gold price is trading at 8,935.16 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,948.33 closing on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold eased slightly to INR 104,217.90 per tola from INR 104,371.50 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,935.16 10 Grams 89,352.12 Tola 104,217.90 Troy Ounce 277,914.70 Global Market Movers: Comex Gold price holds upside amid US-China trade war concerns China increased its tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation for US President Donald Trump's decision to raise duties on Chinese goods to a combined 145%. This, in turn, adds to market concerns that the escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies would weaken global economic growth and lift the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh all-time peak. Meanwhile, the recent unusual spike in US Treasury yields suggests that investors are dumping US government bonds amid the weakening confidence in the US economy. Adding to this, the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by the US consumer inflation data released last week, keep the US Dollar depressed and further benefit the commodity. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Thursday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in March and the yearly rate decelerated sharply to 2.4% from 2.8% in February. Moreover, the core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.1% from the month before and came in at 2.8% for the 12 months ended in March, marking its lowest rate in nearly four years. Traders are now pricing in 90 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end 2025, which might further contribute to driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, investors expect tariffs to push inflation higher in the coming months. This could further underpin the XAU/USD's status as a hedge against rising prices and support prospects for a further near-term appreciation. Market participants this week will closely scrutinize comments from influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, for cues about the future rate-cut path. Apart from this, the US monthly Retail Sales figures, also due on Wednesday, will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal during the latter half of the week. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

09:35 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) remains unchanged at -0.1% in March
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) remains unchanged at -0.1% in March

09:35 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in March
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in March

09:03 EUR/GBP climbs toward 0.8700 as risk sentiment improves
EUR/GBP remains stronger for the third successive session, trading around 0.8670 during the Asian hours on Monday.

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The currency cross appreciates amid improved risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump announced less severe tariffs late Sunday on Chinese imports, including semiconductors and electronics. However, clarifying earlier speculation about exemptions, Trump confirmed these goods would remain subject to the existing 20% tariffs related to fentanyl rather than the previously suggested 145% duties.In an interview with Handelsblatt on Saturday, German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz expressed concern over Trump’s economic approach, stating, “President Trump’s policies are increasing the risk that the next financial crisis will hit sooner than expected.” Merz also voiced support for a new transatlantic trade agreement, adding, “Zero percent tariffs on everything—that would be better for both sides.”The upside potential for EUR/GBP cross may be capped as the Pound Sterling (GBP) remains supported by a rise in UK 10-year gilt yields, which reached 4.76% amid ongoing volatility in global bond markets driven by escalating US-China trade tensions. China’s Ministry of Finance announced a sharp tariff hike on US goods, raising duties from 84% to 125%, following President Trump’s earlier move to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%.UK GDP data suggested the economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% in February, marking the fastest monthly growth in nearly a year with broad-based gains across key sectors. The upside surprise—partly fueled by a surge in pre-tariff manufacturing—prompted investors to dial back expectations for aggressive Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. Nonetheless, markets still anticipate at least three quarter-point reductions this year. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

08:09 USD/CHF climbs above 0.8150 after rebounding from lowest since September 2011
The USD/CHF pair edges higher in early Asian trading on Monday, hovering around the 0.8170 mark after recording losses in the past two consecutive sessions. Market participants are eyeing the release of Switzerland’s Producer and Import Prices for March, due later in the day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF rebounds from 0.8099, the lowest since September, recorded on Friday.The Swiss Franc may regain its ground due to safe-haven demand amid escalating US-China-trade tensions.Fed’s Kashkari stated that the economic impact of Trump’s trade war would hinge on how trade uncertainties are resolved.The USD/CHF pair edges higher in early Asian trading on Monday, hovering around the 0.8170 mark after recording losses in the past two consecutive sessions. Market participants are eyeing the release of Switzerland’s Producer and Import Prices for March, due later in the day.However, the upside of the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to draw support from safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The renewed friction has reignited fears of a global recession, prompting investors to move away from US assets.Late last week, a series of economic indicators added to the market’s cautious tone. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in April, while one-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7%. On the inflation front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in March, easing from 3.2% in February. Core inflation also slowed to 3.3%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims ticked up to 223,000, though continuing claims declined to 1.85 million—offering a mixed view of the labor market.Adding to the uncertainty, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari, in an interview on CBS's Face the Nation on Sunday, described the trade dispute’s impact as one of the most significant blows to confidence in the past decade—second only to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. He emphasized that the extent of the economic fallout hinges on how quickly trade tensions are resolved. Moreover, the New York Fed’s Williams and the Boston Fed’s Collins warned of rising trade-related inflation risks and a likely downturn in growth. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

08:08 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slides below $32.00; downside potential seems limited
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers at the start of a new week and slides back below the $32.00 round-figure mark during the Asian session on Monday.

07:32 Japan Capacity Utilization down to -1.1% in February from previous 4.5%
Japan Capacity Utilization down to -1.1% in February from previous 4.5%

07:31 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.1% in February
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.1% in February

07:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 2.3% below forecasts (2.5%) in February
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 2.3% below forecasts (2.5%) in February

07:20 Gold price consolidates near all-time peak as bulls pause for breather
Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase and oscillates in a range around the $3,230 region, just below a fresh all-time peak touched during the Asian session on Monday.

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Improving risk sentiment might cap the precious metal amid a slightly overbought daily RSI. Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase and oscillates in a range around the $3,230 region, just below a fresh all-time peak touched during the Asian session on Monday. Bulls pause for a breather amid slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart, though the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion remains to the upside. Despite US President Donald Trump's decision last week to pause sweeping reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, a sharp escalation in US-China trade tensions continues to weigh on investor sentiment and underpin the safe-haven precious metal.Meanwhile, the recent sell-off in the US bond market raises fears that confidence in the US economy is fading. Furthermore, data released last Thursday showed that US inflation cooled to a six-month low in March, reaffirming bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. Moreover, the US central bank is expected to lower borrowing costs at least three times this year. This has been a key factor behind the recent US Dollar (USD) slump to its lowest level since April 2022 and should turn out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold price, validating the positive outlook. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to draw support from rising US-China trade tensionsChina increased its tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation for US President Donald Trump's decision to raise duties on Chinese goods to a combined 145%. This, in turn, adds to market concerns that the escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies would weaken global economic growth and lift the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh all-time peak. Meanwhile, the recent unusual spike in US Treasury yields suggests that investors are dumping US government bonds amid the weakening confidence in the US economy. Adding to this, the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by the US consumer inflation data released last week, keep the US Dollar depressed and further benefit the commodity. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Thursday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in March and the yearly rate decelerated sharply to 2.4% from 2.8% in February. Moreover, the core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.1% from the month before and came in at 2.8% for the 12 months ended in March, marking its lowest rate in nearly four years.Traders are now pricing in 90 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end 2025, which might further contribute to driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, investors expect tariffs to push inflation higher in the coming months. This could further underpin the XAU/USD's status as a hedge against rising prices and support prospects for a further near-term appreciation. Market participants this week will closely scrutinize comments from influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, for cues about the future rate-cut path. Apart from this, the US monthly Retail Sales figures, also due on Wednesday, will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal during the latter half of the week. Gold price needs to consolidate before the next leg up amid slightly overbought daily RSIFrom a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding just above the 70 mark and points to slightly overstretched conditions. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before traders start positioning for a fresh leg up. Meanwhile, any corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $3,200 round figure, which, in turn, should help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $3,168-3,167 region. The latter should act as a strong base and a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:15 NZD/USD advances to near 0.5850 following stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data
The NZD/USD pair continues its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 0.5840 during the Asian session on Monday.

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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains traction as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following US President Donald Trump’s announcement late Sunday of less aggressive tariffs on Chinese imports, including semiconductors and electronics. Trump clarified that these items will remain subject to the existing 20% fentanyl-related tariffs rather than the initially rumored 145%.NZD also benefits from stronger-than-expected Chinese trade figures for March—critical for New Zealand given its economic ties to China. China's trade surplus, measured in Yuan, surged to CNY 736.72 billion from CNY 122 billion in February. In USD terms, the surplus hit $102.6 billion, beating the $77 billion forecast, though down from the previous $170.51 billion. Exports rose 13.5% year-over-year, accelerating from February's 3.4%, while imports fell 3.5%, a smaller drop compared to the prior 7.3% decline.China’s General Administration of Customs acknowledged the challenging global environment but remained optimistic, stating that foreign trade has shown both quantitative and qualitative growth. Officials reaffirmed China's resolve to implement necessary measures to counter US actions and protect national sovereignty.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined for a third straight session, falling toward the 99.50 mark and approaching Friday’s three-year low of 99.01. The Greenback’s weakness reflects declining investor confidence amid softer economic data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% YoY in March, down from 3.2% in February, with the core rate easing to 3.3%. Commenting on the economic impact of the trade war, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Face the Nation that the uncertainty poses the most significant blow to confidence since the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

07:12 FX option expiries for Apr 14 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1050 435m1.1300 438m1.1345 560m1.1350 440mGBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3000 638mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6550 610mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3825 430m

06:31 Australian Dollar holds gains following China’s trade balance data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, supported by improved risk sentiment. The AUD/USD pair rose after US President Donald Trump announced less severe tariffs late Sunday on Chinese imports, including semiconductors and electronics.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains stronger following China’s import-export data released on Monday.China’s Trade Balance came in at $102.64B for March, against the previous $170.51B and expected $77B.The US Dollar is under pressure as weakening economic data and dovish signals from the Fed dampen investor confidence.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, supported by improved risk sentiment. The AUD/USD pair rose after US President Donald Trump announced less severe tariffs late Sunday on Chinese imports, including semiconductors and electronics. Clarifying earlier speculation about exemptions, Trump confirmed these goods would remain subject to the existing 20% tariffs related to fentanyl rather than the previously suggested 145% duties. Stronger commodity prices provided further support for the Australian Dollar. However, persistent trade tensions between the US and China continue to weigh on the outlook, especially given Australia’s heavy reliance on Chinese demand and exports.China’s Trade Balance for March, measured in Chinese Yuan (CNY), recorded a substantial increase to CNY 736.72 billion, up sharply from CNY 122 billion in the previous month. In US Dollar (USD) terms, the trade surplus also exceeded expectations, coming in at $102.6 billion—well above the forecast of $77 billion, though lower than the prior $170.51 billion.The General Administration of Customs of China acknowledged the challenges facing the country’s exports, calling the current external environment “complex and severe.” Despite this, officials expressed confidence, stating that “the sky will not fall.” They reported a solid start to the year, with foreign trade showing growth in both volume and quality. The agency also emphasized China’s commitment to enforcing all measures necessary to counter US actions and to uphold its national sovereignty and security.Australian Dollar rises as US Dollar struggles amid eroding investor confidenceThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, extended its losses for the third consecutive session, slipping below 100.00 and nearing Friday’s three-year low of 99.01. The continued decline reflects eroding investor confidence amid downbeat economic indicators and dovish central bank commentary.The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 50.8 in April, while one-year inflation expectations surged to 6.7%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in March, down from 3.2% in February, with the core rate easing to 3.3%. Jobless claims ticked up to 223,000, although continuing claims declined to 1.85 million—pointing to a mixed picture in the labor market.On Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on CBS' Face the Nation that the economic fallout from Trump’s trade war would largely depend on how quickly trade uncertainties are resolved. “This is the biggest hit to confidence that I can recall in the 10 years I’ve been at the Fed—except for March 2020 when COVID first hit,” Kashkari remarked.The Greenback also faces additional headwinds from rising trade tensions between the US and China, which have reignited fears of a global economic slowdown. On Friday, China’s Ministry of Finance announced a steep increase in tariffs on US goods, raising duties from 84% to 125%. This move followed President Trump’s earlier decision to hike tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually, compared to 3.1% previously and missing the 3.0% estimate. On a monthly basis, headline CPI dipped by 0.1%, while core CPI edged up by 0.1%.Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting suggested that policymakers are nearly unanimous in recognizing the dual challenge of rising inflation and slowing growth, cautioning that the Federal Reserve faces “difficult tradeoffs” in the months ahead.China’s Exports rose 13.5% year-over-year in March, accelerating from 3.4% in February, while imports declined 3.5% YoY, a smaller drop compared to the 7.3% contraction previously reported.The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to implement further monetary easing in Q2 2025. This includes a potential 15 basis point cut to the loan prime rate (LPR) and a minimum 25 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). According to Citi analysts, cited in a Reuters report, there’s an increasing likelihood that domestic stimulus measures will be accelerated in response to mounting external pressures.On Thursday, the AUD found support from reports that Australia is preparing to resume trade negotiations with the European Union (EU). Moreover, the Wall Street Journal reported that China also held talks with EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic, expressing interest in strengthening trade, investment, and industrial cooperation with the bloc.Australian Dollar tests 0.6300 after surpassing 50-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is hovering around the 0.6300 level on Monday. Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a mild bullish bias, with the pair trading above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also climbed above the 50 threshold, further supporting the bullish outlook. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could target the psychological resistance at 0.6400, followed by the four-month high at 0.6408.Immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA at 0.6266, with additional support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6210. A clear break below this level could weaken the short-term bullish structure and expose the pair to further downside toward the 0.5914 area—its lowest since March 2020—and the key psychological level at 0.5900.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% -0.16% -0.62% -0.02% -0.12% -0.27% -0.20% EUR 0.03% 0.36% -0.16% 0.46% 0.66% 0.19% 0.26% GBP 0.16% -0.36% -0.13% 0.09% 0.30% -0.17% -0.09% JPY 0.62% 0.16% 0.13% 0.58% 0.26% 0.12% 0.57% CAD 0.02% -0.46% -0.09% -0.58% -0.06% -0.25% -0.26% AUD 0.12% -0.66% -0.30% -0.26% 0.06% -0.46% -0.39% NZD 0.27% -0.19% 0.17% -0.12% 0.25% 0.46% 0.09% CHF 0.20% -0.26% 0.09% -0.57% 0.26% 0.39% -0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Trade Balance USD The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY. Read more. Last release: Mon Apr 14, 2025 03:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: $102.64B Consensus: $77B Previous: $170.51B Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

06:12 Indonesia Foreign Reserves rose from previous $154.5 to $157.1 in March
Indonesia Foreign Reserves rose from previous $154.5 to $157.1 in March

06:07 China’s Trade Balance: Surplus balloons in March as Exports surge
China's Trade Balance for March, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY736.72 billion, showing a massive expansion from the previous figure of CNY122 billion.

China's Trade Balance for March, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY736.72 billion, showing a massive expansion from the previous figure of CNY122 billion.Exports jumped 13.5% YoY in March vs. 3.4% in February. The country’s imports fell 3.5% YoY in the same period vs. -7.3% booked previously.In US Dollar (USD) terms, China’s trade surplus expanded more-than-expected in March.Trade Balance came in at +102.6B versus +77B expected and +170.51B previous.

06:03 China Trade Balance CNY climbed from previous 122B to 736.72B in March
China Trade Balance CNY climbed from previous 122B to 736.72B in March

06:03 China Trade Balance USD came in at $102.64B, above expectations ($77B) in March
China Trade Balance USD came in at $102.64B, above expectations ($77B) in March

06:02 China Exports (YoY) CNY climbed from previous 3.4% to 13.5% in March
China Exports (YoY) CNY climbed from previous 3.4% to 13.5% in March

06:02 China Imports (YoY) below expectations (-2%) in March: Actual (-4.3%)
China Imports (YoY) below expectations (-2%) in March: Actual (-4.3%)

06:02 China Exports (YoY) came in at 12.4%, above forecasts (4.4%) in March
China Exports (YoY) came in at 12.4%, above forecasts (4.4%) in March

05:42 WTI trades with negative bias just above mid-$60.00s amid mixed fundamental cues
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on Friday's modest gains and attract fresh sellers near the $61.60 area at the start of a new week.

05:32 Ueda speech: BoJ will take appropriate policy decision to stably achieve 2% inflation target
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that “the BoJ will take appropriate monetary policy decision to stably achieve 2% inflation target, while scrutinizing economic, price and financial developments without any preconception.”

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that “the BoJ will take appropriate monetary policy decision to stably achieve 2% inflation target, while scrutinizing economic, price and financial developments without any preconception.”Further commentsGlobal Japanese economic uncertainty has heightened sharply due to the US tariff policy.US tariff policy is likely to put downward pressure on global and Japanese economies through various channels.US tariffs are likely to exert both upside and downside pressure on prices.Impact on Japan's economy will also depend largely on upcoming developments in US tariff policy.Market reactionUSD/JPY remains heavy below 143.00 following these comments, down 0.44% on the day.

05:28 China Customs: Exports are facing a complex, severe external situation, but 'the sky will not fall'
The General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (China Customs) said on Monday, “at present, China's exports are facing a complex and severe external situation, but "the sky will not fall". “

The General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (China Customs) said on Monday, “at present, China's exports are facing a complex and severe external situation, but "the sky will not fall". “Additional quotesIn the first quarter of this year, economic operation started smoothly, foreign trade pushed forward under pressure, and achieved scale growth and quality improvement.Will strictly implement all measures to control the United States in accordance with the law and safeguard national sovereignty and security.China is actively building a diversified market, deepening cooperation with all parties in the supply chain.Importantly, China's domestic demand market is broad.

05:23 Japanese Yen stands firm near multi-month peak against a broadly weaker USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts fresh buyers at the start of a new week and remains within striking distance of its highest level since late September 2024 touched against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) last Friday.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts fresh buyers at the start of a new week and remains within striking distance of its highest level since late September 2024 touched against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) last Friday. Concerns about the rapidly escalating US-China trade war and its impact on the global economy continue to underpin traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Furthermore, hopes that Japan might strike a trade deal with the US turned out to be another factor offering support to the JPY.Meanwhile, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In contrast, investors have been pricing in the possibility of aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid worries that the escalating US-China trade war would hinder the US economic growth. This would result in a further narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and the US, which suggests that the path of least resistance for the lower-yielding JPY is to the upside. Japanese Yen draws support from a global flight to safety and BoJ rate hike betsChina’s 84% tariffs on US goods took effect on Thursday, while US President Donald Trump hiked duties on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145%. The developments fuel worries about the potential economic fallout from the escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies and drive some safe-haven flows toward the Japanese Yen. Investors remain optimistic about a positive outcome from US-Japan trade talks. In fact, Trump said last week that tough but fair parameters are being set for a negotiation. Adding to this, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Japan may be a priority in tariff negotiations, fueling hopes for a possible US-Japan trade deal and further underpinning the JPY. Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba warned on Monday that “US tariffs have the potential to disrupt the world economic order.” Separately, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said that “the US and Japan share the view that excessive FX volatility is undesirable.” Moreover, Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that "the FX issues will be dealt with between Finance Minister Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent."Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's preliminary report released last Thursday showed that annual wholesale inflation accelerated to 4.2% in March. This is a sign of persistent cost pressures, which, along with strong wage growth, should contribute to mounting domestic inflationary pressure and allow the BoJ to continue raising interest rates this year. In contrast, the latest reading of the US Consumer Price Index indicated that inflation slowed sharply in March. This comes on top of the weakening confidence in the US economy and should allow the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle. Moreover, market participants are now pricing in the possibility of 90 basis points of rate cuts by the end of this year. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations turn out to be another factor that benefits the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar, on the other hand, languishes near its lowest level since April 2022 touched on Friday. This, in turn, drags the USD/JPY pair back closer to a multi-month low during the Asian session on Monday and supports prospects for further losses.USD/JPY needs to consolidate before the next leg down; 142.00 holds the key
From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on the verge of breaking into the oversold territory and warrants some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for an extension of over a three-month-old downtrend. In the meantime, the 142.00 mark, or a multi-month low touched on Friday, could offer some support to the USD/JPY pair. A convincing break below could drag spot prices towards the 141.65-141.60 intermediate support en route to the 141.00 mark. Some follow-through selling below the 140.75 zone might expose the September 2024 swing low, around the 140.30-140.25 region, before the pair eventually drops to the 140.00 psychological mark.On the flip side, any attempted recovery back above the 143.00 mark is likely to confront stiff resistance near the 143.50-143.55 zone. The subsequent move up could lift the USD/JPY pair to the Asian session peak, around the 144.00 round figure, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally to the 144.45-144.50 horizontal resistance. The momentum could extend further towards reclaiming the 145.00 psychological mark en route to the 145.50 zone and the 146.00 round figure. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:21 US President Trump: Will announce the tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he “will announce the tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week.”

04:39 USD/CAD falls toward 1.3850 due to potential US recession, persistent inflation
USD/CAD continues its losing streak for the fourth straight session, hovering around 1.3860 during Monday's Asian trading hours.

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The decline is driven by a weakening US Dollar (USD), pressured by investor concerns over a potential recession and persistent inflation, prompting a shift away from United States’ (US) assets.The Greenback also faces additional headwinds from rising trade tensions between the US and China, which have reignited fears of a global economic slowdown. On Friday, China’s Ministry of Finance announced a steep increase in tariffs on US goods, raising duties from 84% to 125%. This move followed President Trump’s earlier decision to hike tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%.Economic data released late last week added to the cautious mood. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8 in April, while one-year inflation expectations surged to 6.7%. Meanwhile, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in March, easing from 3.2% in February, with core inflation cooling to 3.3%. Initial jobless claims edged higher to 223,000, although continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, painting a mixed picture of the labor market.Speaking on CBS' Face the Nation on Sunday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari commented on the trade dispute's impact: “This is the biggest hit to confidence that I can recall in the 10 years I’ve been at the Fed—except for March 2020 when COVID first hit.” Kashkari emphasized that the economic fallout would largely depend on how swiftly trade tensions are resolved.Although President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day truce offered a glimmer of hope for renewed negotiations, broader concerns about the US economic outlook have prompted capital flows toward Canada, strengthening the Canadian Dollar (CAD).However, the commodity-linked CAD may face some headwinds as Oil prices remain subdued, given that Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the US. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil is trading lower at around $60.70 per barrel amid worries that escalating US-China trade tensions could hamper global growth and reduce fuel demand. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2110 vs. 7.2087 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2110 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2087 and 7.3251 Reuters estimate.

04:13 Japan’s PM Ishiba: US tariffs have the potential to disrupt the world economic order
Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba warned on Monday that “US tariffs have the potential to disrupt the world economic order.”

Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba warned on Monday that “US tariffs have the potential to disrupt the world economic order.”Meanwhile, the country’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said that “the US and Japan share the view that excessive FX volatility is undesirable.”“FX rate to be determined by markets,” Kato noted further.Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that the FX issues will be dealt with between Finance Minister Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

03:53 EUR/USD remains subdued around 1.1350 after two days of gains
The EUR/USD pair edges lower during Asian trading hours on Monday, hovering around 1.1360 after posting gains in the previous two sessions.

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The pair appreciated due to weakening US Dollar (USD), which has come under pressure amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China—rekindling concerns of a global recession.China's Ministry of Finance announced a sharp hike in tariffs on US goods on Friday, increasing duties to 125% from 84%. This move came in response to US President Donald Trump’s decision a day earlier to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. Meanwhile, to de-escalate trade friction, the European Union (EU) announced a 90-day suspension of its planned retaliatory tariffs, echoing a similar pause by Washington to encourage renewed dialogue.In an interview with Handelsblatt on Saturday, German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz expressed concern over Trump’s economic approach, stating, “President Trump’s policies are increasing the risk that the next financial crisis will hit sooner than expected.” Merz also voiced support for a new transatlantic trade agreement, adding, “Zero percent tariffs on everything—that would be better for both sides.”The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, extended its losses for the third consecutive session, slipping below 100.00 and nearing Friday’s three-year low. The continued decline reflects eroding investor confidence amid downbeat economic indicators and dovish central bank commentary.The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 50.8 in April, while one-year inflation expectations surged to 6.7%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in March, down from 3.2% in February, with the core rate easing to 3.3%. Jobless claims ticked up to 223,000, although continuing claims declined to 1.85 million—pointing to a mixed picture in the labor market.On Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on CBS' Face the Nation that the economic fallout from Trump’s trade war would largely depend on how quickly trade uncertainties are resolved. “This is the biggest hit to confidence that I can recall in the 10 years I’ve been at the Fed—except for March 2020 when COVID first hit,” Kashkari remarked. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:37 GBP/USD holds steady near 1.3100, bulls have the upper hand amid bearish USD
The GBP/USD pair edges higher at the start of a new week and trades just below the 1.3100 mark during the Asian session, well within striking distance of Friday's swing high.

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The GBP/USD pair edges higher at the start of a new week and trades just below the 1.3100 mark during the Asian session, well within striking distance of Friday's swing high. Moreover, the bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. The initial market reaction to US President Donald Trump's decision last week to pause sweeping reciprocal tariffs for 90 days turned out to be short-lived amid heightened concerns over a US recession on the back of the escalating US-China trade war. China’s 84% tariffs on US goods took effect on Thursday, while Trump hiked duties on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145%. Given that the US still imports several hard-to-replace materials from China, the developments weaken confidence in the American economy. This, in turn, dragged the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to its lowest level since April 2022 and continues to act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, data released last week showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) contracted 0.1% in March while core CPI increased +2.8% year-on-year, below consensus expectations. This comes on top of worries about the potential economic fallout from an all-out trade war and further lifts bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, markets are now pricing in 90 basis points of rate cuts by the end of this year. In contrast, investors see slightly less chance of a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut next month. This, along with signs of stability in the equity markets, turns out to be another factor undermining the safe-haven buck and lending support to the GBP/USD pair. The aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop validates the near-term positive outlook for spot prices, though bulls seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for important UK macro releases. The crucial monthly jobs report is due on Tuesday, followed by the latest consumer inflation figures on Wednesday. Apart from this, investors, this week will also confront the release of US monthly Retail Sales data and closely scrutinize Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, which will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. This, in turn, should provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair during the latter part of the week. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:01 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (-0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.8%)
Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (-0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.8%)

03:00 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (4.2%) in 1Q: Actual (3.8%)
Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (4.2%) in 1Q: Actual (3.8%)

02:53 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats further from all-time highs of $3,245
Gold price is back in the red early Monday, snapping a three-day record rally to lifetime highs of $3,245 set on Friday.

02:37 AUD/USD kicks off the week on the front foot near 0.6300
AUD/USD is holding the three-day recovery momentum from five-year lows on Monday at the start of the week, posting small gains near 0.6300.

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Markets breath a sigh of relief, digesting the weekend’s news of less steep tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump late Sunday on Chinese imports of semiconductors and the electronics supply chain.Squashing the news of tariffs exemption, Trump clarified that these products will be subject to the existing 20% tariffs on fentanyl and not the 145% levies.Higher US equity futures reflect the positive risk tone, with the S&P 500 futures gaining nearly 0.80% so far. However, it remains to be seen if the Aussie pair sustains the upswing as the US Dollar could also see a tepid turnaround from three-year lows on improving risk profile.The US Dollar hit a fresh three-year low against its major currency rivals after the US-China trade war deepened on Friday. China retaliated by raising additional tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84% but mentioned ignoring further US responses.China’s remark also consoles the markets, supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie.Looking ahead, the pair awaits the Chinese trade data, with key focus on its exports amid the trade war. Although the full impact of US tariffs will not be known but the data could provide some fresh trading incentives in the major. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:13 Germany’s Merz: US President Trump’s policies are increasing the risk of next financial crisis
In a Handelsblatt interview on Saturday, German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said, US “President Trump’s policies are increasing the risk that the next financial crisis will hit sooner than expected.”

In a Handelsblatt interview on Saturday, German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said, US “President Trump’s policies are increasing the risk that the next financial crisis will hit sooner than expected.”Further comments"Yes, I’m hoping for a new transatlantic free-trade accord.”“Zero percent tariffs on everything. That would be better for both sides.”“Europe would have to focus on non-US markets if the US decided to bow out of global trade entirely.”“We Europeans need to come up with a persuasive response.”

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY): -1.6% (March) vs -4.2%
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY): -1.6% (March) vs -4.2%

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -0.8% in March from previous 0.3%
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -0.8% in March from previous 0.3%

01:45 Fed’s Kashkari: Recession prospects depend on speed of trade deals
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President, said in a CBS ‘ Face the Nation show on Sunday that recession prospects from President Trump’s trade war will be determined by whether there are “quick resolutions” to trade uncertainties with major trading partners.

Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President, said in a CBS ‘ Face the Nation show on Sunday that recession prospects from President Trump’s trade war will be determined by whether there are “quick resolutions” to trade uncertainties with major trading partners.Kashkari said: “This is the biggest hit to confidence that I can recall in the 10 years that I’ve been at the Fed, except for March of 2020 when Covid first hit.“So when there is that kind of hit to confidence it can have large effects on the economy,” he added.Additional quotes“In many sectors, whether it’s a 10% tariff or 50% or 100% tariff, it has a dramatic effect on the trade flows and so a lot of my folks that I hear from here are quite concerned.”“At the Fed, our job is to keep inflation under control so that rate isn’t even higher.”“Investors in the US and around the world are trying to determine what is the new normal in America.”“Markets are functioning, trades are happening and so I anticipate that’s going to continue.”Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index is up 0.11% on the day, trading at 99.89.

01:31 US President Trump clarifies 20% tariffs on Chinese imports of semiconductors, electronics
Late Sunday, US President Donald Trump took to his own social media application, Truth Social, and clarified that there will be no tariff exemption on semiconductors and the electronics supply chain, as these products will be subject to the existing 20% tariffs on fentanyl and not the 145% hike.

Late Sunday, US President Donald Trump took to his own social media application, Truth Social, and clarified that there will be no tariff exemption on semiconductors and the electronics supply chain, as these products will be subject to the existing 20% tariffs on fentanyl and not the 145% hike.This comes after the US Customs and Border Protection issued a guidance late Friday stating certain items like smartphones, laptops, hard drives, flat-panel monitors, semiconductors etc would be exempted from both Trump’s 10% baseline reciprocal tariffs and the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports.However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an ABC News interview on Sunday that smartphones, computers and some other electronics, just exempted from steep tariffs on imports from China, would face separate new levies along with semiconductors within the next two months.Lutnick added that he is “not concerned about the US Dollar. “Meanwhile, US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer told CBS News on Sunday that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping "don't have any plans" to speak amid an escalating trade war between the two countries.“We have to be much more deliberate about the semiconductor supply chain,” he said on the latest tariff talks on electronics and semiconductors.

01:30 New Zealand Business NZ PSI unchanged at 49.1 in March
New Zealand Business NZ PSI unchanged at 49.1 in March

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15:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in February: Actual (0.3%) Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in February: Actual (0.3%)

14:14 US: Trump is backpadeling further – Commerzbank And the backpedaling continues. In addition to the three-month tariff pause, the US government has now also expanded its list of goods exempt from reciprocal tariffs. This now includes all kinds of electronic goods.

14:05 CHF: How fast is too fast for the SNB? – Commerzbank The Swiss franc benefited significantly from its safe-haven status after the announcement of the reciprocal US tariffs. However, the rapid appreciation is likely to be a thorn in the side of the SNB.

13:43 Oil: Tariff relief vs Iranian talks – ING The oil market is quiet in early morning trading today, after settling lower for a second consecutive week last week. News that the Trump administration is offering tariff exemptions on certain electronics products initially supported risk assets.

13:24 Chinese Gold ETFs see record inflows – ING Recent reports suggest that Chinese gold exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows reached a fresh daily record late last week. Investors continue to rush towards the yellow metal amid intensifying trade tensions.

13:17 EUR/USD strengthens on mounting fears of US stagflation EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1400 in Monday’s European session. The major currency pair aims to reclaim the over-three-year high of 1.1474, which it posted on Friday.

12:52 GBP: Macro back in focus this week – ING Sterling rallied against the dollar but sold off against the euro last week, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

12:50 EUR/USD: Rally may take a pause – UOB Group Rally may take a pause; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.1240 and 1.1415 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, further EUR strength is not ruled out, but it may first range-trade for a couple of days.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:54 EUR/JPY moves sideways near 163.00, upside appears due to improved global risk mood EUR/JPY experiences volatility during European hours on Monday, trading near the 163.00 mark. The Euro finds support as improved global risk sentiment boosts demand for risk-sensitive assets.

11:41 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:13 Pound Sterling strengthens against US Dollar as consumer sentiment deteriorates The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its winning streak for the fifth trading day against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.

10:23 Forex Today: Risk mood improves to start week, US Dollar remains weak Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 14:

10:00 Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-4.405B, below expectations ($-4.3B) in February Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-4.405B, below expectations ($-4.3B) in February

09:53 India Gold price today: Gold retreats after a stellar week Gold price in India has stalled its record rally as buyers take a breather after a stellar week.

09:35 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) remains unchanged at -0.1% in March Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) remains unchanged at -0.1% in March

09:35 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in March Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in March

09:03 EUR/GBP climbs toward 0.8700 as risk sentiment improves EUR/GBP remains stronger for the third successive session, trading around 0.8670 during the Asian hours on Monday.

08:08 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slides below $32.00; downside potential seems limited Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers at the start of a new week and slides back below the $32.00 round-figure mark during the Asian session on Monday.

07:32 Japan Capacity Utilization down to -1.1% in February from previous 4.5% Japan Capacity Utilization down to -1.1% in February from previous 4.5%

07:31 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.1% in February Japan Industrial Production (YoY) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.1% in February

07:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 2.3% below forecasts (2.5%) in February Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 2.3% below forecasts (2.5%) in February

07:20 Gold price consolidates near all-time peak as bulls pause for breather Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase and oscillates in a range around the $3,230 region, just below a fresh all-time peak touched during the Asian session on Monday.

07:15 NZD/USD advances to near 0.5850 following stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data The NZD/USD pair continues its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 0.5840 during the Asian session on Monday.

07:12 FX option expiries for Apr 14 NY cut FX option expiries for Apr 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

06:12 Indonesia Foreign Reserves rose from previous $154.5 to $157.1 in March Indonesia Foreign Reserves rose from previous $154.5 to $157.1 in March

06:07 China’s Trade Balance: Surplus balloons in March as Exports surge China's Trade Balance for March, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY736.72 billion, showing a massive expansion from the previous figure of CNY122 billion.

06:03 China Trade Balance CNY climbed from previous 122B to 736.72B in March China Trade Balance CNY climbed from previous 122B to 736.72B in March

06:03 China Trade Balance USD came in at $102.64B, above expectations ($77B) in March China Trade Balance USD came in at $102.64B, above expectations ($77B) in March

06:02 China Exports (YoY) CNY climbed from previous 3.4% to 13.5% in March China Exports (YoY) CNY climbed from previous 3.4% to 13.5% in March

06:02 China Imports (YoY) below expectations (-2%) in March: Actual (-4.3%) China Imports (YoY) below expectations (-2%) in March: Actual (-4.3%)

06:02 China Exports (YoY) came in at 12.4%, above forecasts (4.4%) in March China Exports (YoY) came in at 12.4%, above forecasts (4.4%) in March

05:42 WTI trades with negative bias just above mid-$60.00s amid mixed fundamental cues West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on Friday's modest gains and attract fresh sellers near the $61.60 area at the start of a new week.

05:23 Japanese Yen stands firm near multi-month peak against a broadly weaker USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts fresh buyers at the start of a new week and remains within striking distance of its highest level since late September 2024 touched against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) last Friday.

05:21 US President Trump: Will announce the tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he “will announce the tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week.”

04:39 USD/CAD falls toward 1.3850 due to potential US recession, persistent inflation USD/CAD continues its losing streak for the fourth straight session, hovering around 1.3860 during Monday's Asian trading hours.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2110 vs. 7.2087 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2110 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2087 and 7.3251 Reuters estimate.

04:13 Japan’s PM Ishiba: US tariffs have the potential to disrupt the world economic order Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba warned on Monday that “US tariffs have the potential to disrupt the world economic order.”

03:53 EUR/USD remains subdued around 1.1350 after two days of gains The EUR/USD pair edges lower during Asian trading hours on Monday, hovering around 1.1360 after posting gains in the previous two sessions.

03:37 GBP/USD holds steady near 1.3100, bulls have the upper hand amid bearish USD The GBP/USD pair edges higher at the start of a new week and trades just below the 1.3100 mark during the Asian session, well within striking distance of Friday's swing high.

03:01 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (-0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.8%) Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (-0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.8%)

03:00 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (4.2%) in 1Q: Actual (3.8%) Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (4.2%) in 1Q: Actual (3.8%)

02:53 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats further from all-time highs of $3,245 Gold price is back in the red early Monday, snapping a three-day record rally to lifetime highs of $3,245 set on Friday.

02:37 AUD/USD kicks off the week on the front foot near 0.6300 AUD/USD is holding the three-day recovery momentum from five-year lows on Monday at the start of the week, posting small gains near 0.6300.

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY): -1.6% (March) vs -4.2% New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY): -1.6% (March) vs -4.2%

01:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -0.8% in March from previous 0.3% New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -0.8% in March from previous 0.3%

01:30 New Zealand Business NZ PSI unchanged at 49.1 in March New Zealand Business NZ PSI unchanged at 49.1 in March

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