ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
23:34 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds toward $30 as bulls defend key support
Silver price sellers failed to decisively clear support at $28.75 daily, and buyers stepped in near yearly lows of $28.33, pushing the grey metal’s price back above $29.80 with traders eyeing the $30.00 mark. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $29.89, up 0.89%.
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Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
23:31 Australian Dollar extends slump toward 0.6000 as tariff anxiety deepens in Monday trade
The AUD/USD pair remains under sustained pressure during Monday’s American session, holding near the 0.6000 zone after a short-lived rebound in Asia.
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AUD/USD continues to sink in Monday’s US session, trading near the 0.6000 region after earlier stalling a brief Asian recovery.US-China trade standoff intensifies with more tariffs; Trump mulls 90-day pause for others, Australia still at risk.Bearish momentum persists with oversold signals building; resistance seen near 0.6100, while the pair holds mid-range.
The AUD/USD pair remains under sustained pressure during Monday’s American session, holding near the 0.6000 zone after a short-lived rebound in Asia. The pair has extended its decline from Friday’s deep losses as risk sentiment remains sour amid continued tariff escalation between the United States and China. US President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance highlighted by a new executive order imposing a 34% levy on Chinese imports has sparked fears of a broader trade war. Meanwhile, hopes for a tariff reprieve were dashed after the White House denied reports of a 90-day pause, leading markets back into risk-off mode. From a technical standpoint, the pair remains deeply bearish with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in oversold territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirming renewed downward pressure.
Daily digest market movers: Tariff rhetoric keeps Aussie pinnedTensions between the US and China escalated after President Trump’s latest trade decree prompted Beijing to retaliate with 34% tariffs. Despite early reports hinting at a 90-day pause in broader tariffs, the White House firmly refuted the claim, calling it misinformation.Equities initially trimmed losses on speculation of a softer stance but quickly reversed after official denials. Wall Street fell sharply again with the Dow Jones shedding more than 1.5% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tracking similar losses before recovering.The Australian Dollar remains heavily exposed to Chinese trade dynamics, and due to tariff threats mounting, market participants are increasingly pricing in aggressive easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.China’s Foreign Ministry rejected the US approach, labeling it coercive and unconstructive, as the trade dispute shows no signs of resolution. Trump’s insistence on solving the trade imbalance before any deal adds further uncertainty.The AUD’s failure to build on earlier gains reflects waning confidence in global growth prospects with commodities and risk currencies falling in tandem.
Technical analysis
The technical backdrop for AUD/USD remains decisively bearish on Monday. Price action is hovering near the middle of the day’s range, having bounced slightly off earlier lows. Still, bearish momentum remains entrenched with the MACD printing a fresh red bar and maintaining a clear sell signal. The RSI sits at 25, deep within oversold territory, albeit with a slightly softer decline compared to Friday.Despite the downward pressure, some mixed signals have emerged. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI), surprisingly, points to a possible oversold bounce, while the Bull/Bear Power remains flat, hinting at temporary consolidation.The broader trend remains negative, confirmed by a clean sweep of selling signals across major moving averages. The 10-day EMA, alongside the 20-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), are all aligned lower, reinforcing the dominant downtrend.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
AUD/USD continues to sink in Monday’s US session, trading near the 0.6000 region after earlier stalling a brief Asian recovery.US-China trade standoff intensifies with more tariffs; Trump mulls 90-day pause for others, Australia still at risk.Bearish momentum persists with oversold signals building; resistance seen near 0.6100, while the pair holds mid-range.
The AUD/USD pair remains under sustained pressure during Monday’s American session, holding near the 0.6000 zone after a short-lived rebound in Asia. The pair has extended its decline from Friday’s deep losses as risk sentiment remains sour amid continued tariff escalation between the United States and China. US President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance highlighted by a new executive order imposing a 34% levy on Chinese imports has sparked fears of a broader trade war. Meanwhile, hopes for a tariff reprieve were dashed after the White House denied reports of a 90-day pause, leading markets back into risk-off mode. From a technical standpoint, the pair remains deeply bearish with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in oversold territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirming renewed downward pressure.
Daily digest market movers: Tariff rhetoric keeps Aussie pinnedTensions between the US and China escalated after President Trump’s latest trade decree prompted Beijing to retaliate with 34% tariffs. Despite early reports hinting at a 90-day pause in broader tariffs, the White House firmly refuted the claim, calling it misinformation.Equities initially trimmed losses on speculation of a softer stance but quickly reversed after official denials. Wall Street fell sharply again with the Dow Jones shedding more than 1.5% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tracking similar losses before recovering.The Australian Dollar remains heavily exposed to Chinese trade dynamics, and due to tariff threats mounting, market participants are increasingly pricing in aggressive easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.China’s Foreign Ministry rejected the US approach, labeling it coercive and unconstructive, as the trade dispute shows no signs of resolution. Trump’s insistence on solving the trade imbalance before any deal adds further uncertainty.The AUD’s failure to build on earlier gains reflects waning confidence in global growth prospects with commodities and risk currencies falling in tandem.
Technical analysis
The technical backdrop for AUD/USD remains decisively bearish on Monday. Price action is hovering near the middle of the day’s range, having bounced slightly off earlier lows. Still, bearish momentum remains entrenched with the MACD printing a fresh red bar and maintaining a clear sell signal. The RSI sits at 25, deep within oversold territory, albeit with a slightly softer decline compared to Friday.Despite the downward pressure, some mixed signals have emerged. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI), surprisingly, points to a possible oversold bounce, while the Bull/Bear Power remains flat, hinting at temporary consolidation.The broader trend remains negative, confirmed by a clean sweep of selling signals across major moving averages. The 10-day EMA, alongside the 20-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), are all aligned lower, reinforcing the dominant downtrend.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
22:40 Gold price sinks below $3,000 as USD surges, tariff turmoil stirs recession fears
Gold (XAU) price prolongs its agony and plummets by over 2% on Monday as investors seeking safety bid the US Dollar, with US trade policy fueling speculation of a global recession. XAU/USD trades at $2,971, its lowest level since mid-March, below $3,000.
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XAU/USD trades at $2,971, its lowest level since mid-March, below $3,000.The King Dollar is back after reaching a six-month low last week, after US President Donald Trump revealed reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. Last Friday, China retaliated by imposing a 34% duty on all imports from the US, sparking turmoil in the financial markets as most global equity indices posted losses.Earlier, the White House advisor Hassett announced that the government might approve a 90-day pause in tariffs, though it would depend on Trump. Nevertheless, the Trump administration rejected that statement, which was later revealed as “fake news,” according to CNBC.Bullion prices were also undermined by the rise in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year note coupon increasing by almost fifteen basis points to 4.147%. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against a basket of six currencies, climbs 0.39% to 103.29.Ahead this week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday, followed by the announcement of the consumer and producer inflation data.Daily digest market movers: Gold price tanks as the US Dollar counterattacksUS real yields edge surge 14 bps to 1.967%, according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to fall from 2.8% to 2.6% YoY in March. The Core CPI is projected to decline over the next twelve months, from 3.1% to 3%.Recently, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that tariffs and shortages are important to consider when forecasting inflation. She added that new tariffs will be “consequential” and have already begun to see some price increases.Recession fears ignited as depicted by the US10s to 3 months yield curve inversion, with the latter paying 27 bps more than the US 10-year yield.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price plummets below $3,000 a troy ounceGold is puking at the time of writing, as sellers continue to push prices lower, beneath the $3,000 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell sharply, turning bearish, hinting that the golden metal could consolidate around the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,942 - $3000. A breach below the former could push prices toward the $2,900 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA at $2,801.Conversely, if buyers push Gold back above $3,000, look for a test of the $3,050 figure. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
22:01 United States Consumer Credit Change registered at $-0.81B, below expectations ($15.2B) in February
United States Consumer Credit Change registered at $-0.81B, below expectations ($15.2B) in February
21:59 Canadian Dollar continues to churn amid tariff woes
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) whipsawed to kick off the new trading week, briefly rising after the US Dollar (USD) took a fresh beating on rumors of a possible tariff extension from the Trump administration.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Canadian Dollar whipsawed on Monday, briefly falling before rising to new familiar technical levels.BoC survey outlook sees further tariff stress on the horizon as businesses hunker down for declining sales and price spikes.Key US inflation data dots the economic calendar landscape this week.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) whipsawed to kick off the new trading week, briefly rising after the US Dollar (USD) took a fresh beating on rumors of a possible tariff extension from the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump was quick to quash the rumors, stating that not only is he not considering any tariff exemptions, but that he would be seeking additional tariffs on China after Chinese officials responded to new US tariffs with counter-tariffs.The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) latest Business Outlook Survey found that many Canadian firms are bracing for extended fallout from the US’s across-the-board and “reciprocal” tariffs. The survey period, which is from February, does not include President Trump’s tariffs announced on April 2, and survey results moving forward will likely continue to take a turn for the worse.Daily digest market movers: Tariff headlines dominate market flowsThe Canadian Dollar remains trapped near the 1.4200 handle against the US Dollar.The Loonie fell 0.6% against the Greenback early Monday, before reversing course and returning to the day’s opening bids.US President Donald Trump has issued a threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on China as the Trump administration ramps up its retaliatory stance on countries that fight back against US tariffs.According to the BoC’s outlook survey, a growing number of Canadian firms are expecting to have to raise prices thanks to US tariffs.Canadian consumers also expect rising odds of a recession in the months to come.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures are due later this week on Thursday.Friday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) and University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index figures will draw plenty of investor attention as markets barrel toward a post-tariff environment.Canadian Dollar price forecastDespite near-term shifts in intraday bids and a sharp uptick in general volatility, the Canadian Dollar continues to churn out familiar technical levels against the Greenback. USD/CAD remains trapped near the 1.4200 handle, with price action going back-and-forth between key technical points.USD/CAD remains trapped just beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.4300. However, Loonie bulls remain unable to push bids below the 200-day EMA near 1.4100, leaving price to waffle between the two major moving averages.USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
21:52 Forex Today: Trump’s tariffs remain in centre stage ahead of US CPI
The Greenback added to Friday’s recovery and climbed to three-day highs on the back of the intense safe-haven demand in response to unabated trade tensions following President Trump’s tariffs.
The Greenback added to Friday’s recovery and climbed to three-day highs on the back of the intense safe-haven demand in response to unabated trade tensions following President Trump’s tariffs. Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 8:The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to around 103.50, or three-day highs, helped by the prevailing risk-off sentiment and the rebound in US yields across the curve. The NFIB Business Optimism Index is due, followed by the API’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles, as well as the speech of the Fed’s Daly.EUR/USD tumbled to two-day lows and revisited the sub-1.0900 region amid increasing concerns around the US trade policy and the US economy. The final Inflation Rate in Germany comes on April 11 along with Current Account results. GBP/USD plummeted to multi-week lows, revisiting the vicinity of the 1.2700 support and breaking below the key 200-day SMA. Next on the UK calendar will be the GDP prints, Goods Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker, all on April 11.USD/JPY built on Friday’s advance and climbed to two-day highs just past the key 148.00 hurdle. Next in Japan will be the Eco Watchers survey along with Current Account results and Bank Lending figures.AUD/USD extended Friday’s deep retracement, challenging the 0.5900 level for the first time since March 2020. The Westpac Consumer Confidence gauge and the NAB Business Confidence are due on April 8.Prices of WTI dropped to more than three-year lows around the $59.00 mark per barrel amid unabated worries surrounding a potential global trade war and its direct impact on crude oil demand.Gold prices dropped for the third consecutive day, breaking below the key $3,000 threshold per troy ounce amid the continuation of the sharp sell-off in stock markets worldwide. Silver prices retreated to levels last seen in September near the $28.00 mark per ounce before staging a decent comeback.
21:24 US Dollar attempts recovery as tariff pause rumors swirl
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is trading near the 103 area on Monday after rebounding on Friday.
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Daily digest market movers: US Dollar jolted by tariff rumor denialMarkets initially rallied on reports that the US was considering a 90-day tariff pause for all nations except China, as revealed by National Economic Council (NEC) Director Kevin Hassett.The optimism was short-lived after a White House spokesperson dismissed the report as untrue, reigniting safe-haven flows and dragging stocks lower.US indexes reversed earlier gains; the Dow dropped over 1.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also slipped into red territory by the afternoon.Attention is shifting toward Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which could reflect the early effects of current trade policies.The White House has touted progress on curbing inflation, particularly in food and energy, but markets remain cautious ahead of the data release.
Technical analysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) attempts to build on Friday’s bounce, hovering near the top of its daily range. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a potential upside push, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.80 remains neutral. Despite this, the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), along with the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), continue to signal downside risk. Momentum indicators are split, with the 10-period Momentum suggesting a buy, but others like the Williams Percent Range indicating neutrality. Resistance levels are seen at 103.52, 103.72, and 103.75, while immediate support is located at 102.51. A rejection at the 103.18 zone last week reinforces that area as a pivotal point to watch.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar jolted by tariff rumor denialMarkets initially rallied on reports that the US was considering a 90-day tariff pause for all nations except China, as revealed by National Economic Council (NEC) Director Kevin Hassett.The optimism was short-lived after a White House spokesperson dismissed the report as untrue, reigniting safe-haven flows and dragging stocks lower.US indexes reversed earlier gains; the Dow dropped over 1.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also slipped into red territory by the afternoon.Attention is shifting toward Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which could reflect the early effects of current trade policies.The White House has touted progress on curbing inflation, particularly in food and energy, but markets remain cautious ahead of the data release.
Technical analysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) attempts to build on Friday’s bounce, hovering near the top of its daily range. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a potential upside push, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.80 remains neutral. Despite this, the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), along with the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), continue to signal downside risk. Momentum indicators are split, with the 10-period Momentum suggesting a buy, but others like the Williams Percent Range indicating neutrality. Resistance levels are seen at 103.52, 103.72, and 103.75, while immediate support is located at 102.51. A rejection at the 103.18 zone last week reinforces that area as a pivotal point to watch.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
21:22 Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD crashes over 100 pips below 1.28 as trade war escalates
The Pound Sterling (GBP) plunges over 100 pips or 0.90% against the Greenback at the beginning of the week, driven by recession fears and hopes cut short that the White House could reconsider their position in trade policies over the weekend.
GBP/USD crashes over 100 pips below 1.28 as trade war escalates
The Pound Sterling (GBP) plunges over 100 pips or 0.90% against the Greenback at the beginning of the week, driven by recession fears and hopes cut short that the White House could reconsider their position in trade policies over the weekend. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.2763 after hitting a daily high of 1.2933. Read More...
Pound Sterling slumps as Trump tariffs send shockwaves to global economy
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gives up its intraday recovery move and tumbles to near 1.2800 against the US Dollar (USD) during Monday’s North American session, the lowest level seen in a month. The GBP/USD pair faces an intense sell-off as the US Dollar strives to gain ground, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, aiming to hold above 103.00. Read More...
GBP/USD bounces off one-month low, defends 200-day SMA and retakes 1.2900
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.2830 region, or over a one-month low touched during the Asian session on Monday and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from a six-month peak touched last week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2900 round figure, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction amid the gloomier global economic outlook. Read More...
20:59 BoC outlook survey highlights deteriorating trade expectations on tariff fears
The Bank of Canada's (BoC) Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter has shown that overlook economic activity expectations are contracting sharply as the United States (US) seeks to spark a global trade war across the board.
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The Bank of Canada's (BoC) Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter has shown that overlook economic activity expectations are contracting sharply as the United States (US) seeks to spark a global trade war across the board. According to the BoC, firms are overwhelmingly set to begin increasing prices in an effort to overcome steep import taxes being imposed by the Trump administration.Key highlightsQ1 BoC survey shows overall sentiment has deteriorated, uncertainty remains widespread.Business survey indicator has declined to -2.14 from -1.16 in Q4 2024.32% of Canadian firms expect Canada to be in a recession in 12 months' time, up from 15% in Q4.65% of firms believe costs will be pushed higher; 35% of firms expect to directly increase selling prices.Fewer businesses expect sales increases over the next year.23% of firms expect inflation to remain above 3% for the next two years.28% of firms have reported direct decline in outright sales over the past year.66.5% of Canadians expect a recession in the next 12 months.Consumers expect 5-year inflation to rise to 3.39% versus 2.99% last.Survey results were collected from February 2 to February 26, does not include latest Trump tariff announcement from April 2. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
20:52 Mexican Peso tumbles to five-week low as tariff fears escalate, volatility soars
The Mexican Peso (MXN) plunges against the US Dollar (USD), extending its losses for the second consecutive day as risk appetite deteriorates, with traders moving into the safe-haven status of the Greenback.
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Hopes that Washington would reconsider the tariff decision over the weekend were cut short. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN exchange rate is 20.68, representing an increase of more than 1%.The financial markets are under stress as volatility measures reach levels last seen since the Covid crisis in March 2020, as depicted by the Volatility Index (VIX) futures. Hence, Emerging Market (EM) currencies remain pressured with the Peso trading near five-week lows.Recently, US President Donald Trump threatened China that if they don’t retract from imposing new 34% duties on US exports to its country, the US will add 50% tariffs on Chinese products effective April 9.Recently, the Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum, said that she would like to avoid imposing reciprocal tariffs on the US, adding that the Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard would continue negotiations with US officials.Mexican Auto Exports and Production improved in March compared to February’s figures. However, tariffs imposed on automobiles could weigh on future numbers, as some companies have expressed that they will relocate to the United States (US) and even reduce work hours in Mexico’s factories.Ahead in the calendar, Mexico’s docket will feature inflation figures and the release of Banco de Mexico’s (Banxico) latest meeting minutes. In the US, inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes will be announced.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso ignores decent economic figures and dropsMexico’s Auto Exports rose by 3.8% YoY up from -9.2% contraction. Auto Production increased by 12.1% on an annual basis, exceeding the -0.8% contraction in February.Mexico’s Consumer Confidence deteriorated further in March, showing the economy continues to slow down.Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that tariffs and shortages are important to consider when forecasting inflation. She added that new tariffs will be “consequential” and have already begun to see some price increases.Banxico’s Governor, Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, stated that the central bank will remain attentive to US trade policies and their impact on the country, with a primary focus on inflation, as she noted in an interview with El Financiero.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso treads water as USD/MXN climbs above 20.50The USD/MXN uptrend continues with buyers clearing the confluence of the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) near 20.34/36, which has exacerbated a rally to a multi-week high of 20.80. Nevertheless, buyers are reluctant to push prices higher, and the pair remains above 20.50.If USD/MXN clears 20.80, the next resistance would be the March 4 peak at 20.99. A breach of the latter will expose 21.00, followed by the February 3 high of 21.28. Conversely, the first support is the confluence of the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) around 20.34/36, followed by the 20.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at 19.76.
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
20:36 Dow Jones Industrial Average roils on renewed tariff threats
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) whipsawed sharply on Monday, kicking off the new trading week with a tumultuous opening volley.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) whipsawed sharply on Monday, kicking off the new trading week with a tumultuous opening volley. The Dow Jones opened the week over a thousand points below Friday’s close, and continuing to decline below the 37,000 level for the first time since December of 2023 as the tariff rout continues. It’s no use, Mr. Xi - it’s tariffs all the way downInvestor sentiment rapidly surged on rumors that the Trump administration was considering a 90-day tariff extension, sending equities higher and pinning the DJIA into the 39,000 level. United States (US) President Donald Trump quickly took to social media to declare that not only were the rumors false, but that Donald Trump intends to issue an additional 50% tariff to take effect on April 8 aimed at China. The fresh tariff threats is in response to a retaliatory 34% tariff on US goods issued by China, which itself was targeted by a 34% “reciprocal” tariff by the US last week, which is also set to take effect on April 9.Fresh tariff threats sent the Dow Jones tumbling back to 37,500, wiping out Monday’s brief rumor-fueled recovery rally. US equity indexes are down sharply across the board, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P) megacap index tumbled another 1.3%, falling to 5,000. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also fell 0.9%, shedding 140 points to test below 15,500.Stock newsDespite a general decline in market sentiment, key tech players are still finding gains on Monday. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rallied 10% to $33 per share as the server rack solution provider recovers from a leadership shakeup, and AI rally darling Nvidia (NVDA) rose 3% to $97 per share. Physical product merchants took a hit on tariff threats, with Nike (NKE) falling 5% and sliding below $55 per share, while China-reliant tech manufacturer Apple (AAPL) tumbled 4.2% to fall below $181 per share.Read more stock news: Alibaba slides 10% after Trump threatens to raise China tariffDow Jones price forecastDespite a desperate low-end recovery, the Dow Jones remains buried deep in bear country. Price action is stuck near technical levels not seen since early 2024, trading down around 16% from record highs set last December just north of 45,000.Monday’s technical bullish rejection from the 37,000 handle could see an increase in near-term recovery bidding. However, the Dow Jones is still well below the 40,000 major price level, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is stuck near 42,000, marking out plenty of areas for bulls to lose control once again if a recovery continues.Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) whipsawed sharply on Monday, kicking off the new trading week with a tumultuous opening volley. The Dow Jones opened the week over a thousand points below Friday’s close, and continuing to decline below the 37,000 level for the first time since December of 2023 as the tariff rout continues. It’s no use, Mr. Xi - it’s tariffs all the way downInvestor sentiment rapidly surged on rumors that the Trump administration was considering a 90-day tariff extension, sending equities higher and pinning the DJIA into the 39,000 level. United States (US) President Donald Trump quickly took to social media to declare that not only were the rumors false, but that Donald Trump intends to issue an additional 50% tariff to take effect on April 8 aimed at China. The fresh tariff threats is in response to a retaliatory 34% tariff on US goods issued by China, which itself was targeted by a 34% “reciprocal” tariff by the US last week, which is also set to take effect on April 9.Fresh tariff threats sent the Dow Jones tumbling back to 37,500, wiping out Monday’s brief rumor-fueled recovery rally. US equity indexes are down sharply across the board, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P) megacap index tumbled another 1.3%, falling to 5,000. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also fell 0.9%, shedding 140 points to test below 15,500.Stock newsDespite a general decline in market sentiment, key tech players are still finding gains on Monday. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rallied 10% to $33 per share as the server rack solution provider recovers from a leadership shakeup, and AI rally darling Nvidia (NVDA) rose 3% to $97 per share. Physical product merchants took a hit on tariff threats, with Nike (NKE) falling 5% and sliding below $55 per share, while China-reliant tech manufacturer Apple (AAPL) tumbled 4.2% to fall below $181 per share.Read more stock news: Alibaba slides 10% after Trump threatens to raise China tariffDow Jones price forecastDespite a desperate low-end recovery, the Dow Jones remains buried deep in bear country. Price action is stuck near technical levels not seen since early 2024, trading down around 16% from record highs set last December just north of 45,000.Monday’s technical bullish rejection from the 37,000 handle could see an increase in near-term recovery bidding. However, the Dow Jones is still well below the 40,000 major price level, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is stuck near 42,000, marking out plenty of areas for bulls to lose control once again if a recovery continues.Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
19:13 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro eases slightly near 1.0900 but maintains bullish bias
The EUR/USD pair edged lower on Monday, slipping toward the 1.0900 zone after earlier testing the upper boundary of its daily range near 1.1050. Despite the intraday pullback, the pair holds onto a bullish structure supported by higher moving averages.
EUR/USD was seen around the 1.0900 area on Monday, retreating after testing higher ground earlier in the session.The broader trend remains constructive, with key moving averages supporting the bullish outlook despite short-term hesitation.Technical support rests near the 1.0880–1.0860 zone, while resistance awaits at 1.0996.
The EUR/USD pair edged lower on Monday, slipping toward the 1.0900 zone after earlier testing the upper boundary of its daily range near 1.1050. Despite the intraday pullback, the pair holds onto a bullish structure supported by higher moving averages. The session unfolded after the European close, with indicators offering mixed short-term signals.
Daily chart
Momentum readings suggest caution in the near term. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a sell signal, hinting at waning upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 57.85, maintaining a neutral tone. Both the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 92.64 and Bull Bear Power at 0.02 also remain flat, reflecting indecision.
Still, the overall technical setup favors buyers. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0881 and 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0853 offer short-term support, while the 20-day SMA at 1.08647 continues to slope higher. Longer-term gauges, including the 100-day SMA at 1.0533 and 200-day SMA at 1.0735, underline a firmly bullish trend.
The EUR/USD pair edged lower on Monday, slipping toward the 1.0900 zone after earlier testing the upper boundary of its daily range near 1.1050. Despite the intraday pullback, the pair holds onto a bullish structure supported by higher moving averages. The session unfolded after the European close, with indicators offering mixed short-term signals.
Daily chart
Momentum readings suggest caution in the near term. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a sell signal, hinting at waning upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 57.85, maintaining a neutral tone. Both the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 92.64 and Bull Bear Power at 0.02 also remain flat, reflecting indecision.
Still, the overall technical setup favors buyers. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0881 and 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0853 offer short-term support, while the 20-day SMA at 1.08647 continues to slope higher. Longer-term gauges, including the 100-day SMA at 1.0533 and 200-day SMA at 1.0735, underline a firmly bullish trend.
18:51 US President Trump vows additional 50% tariff on China as retaliation cycle escalates
United States (US) President Donald Trump continued his trend of issuing decrees via social media on Monday, lashing out over China';s tit-for-tat tariff retaliation last week.
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United States (US) President Donald Trump continued his trend of issuing decrees via social media on Monday, lashing out over China';s tit-for-tat tariff retaliation last week. President Trump issued an Executive Order placing a 34% "reciprocal" tariff on all Chinese goods imported into the US last Wednesday, prompting a retaliatory 34% counter-tariff from China.The new 50% tariff, which will be cumulative alongside the US's 10% across-the-board tariffs and targeted 34% "reciprocal" tariffs, is set to come into effect on Tuesday, April 8. If the Trump administration is successful in placing additional tariffs on short notice, US consumers could be facing import taxes of over 100% on Chinese goods. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
18:25 GBP/USD crashes over 100 pips below 1.28 as trade war escalates
The Pound Sterling plunges over 100 pips or 0.90% against the Greenback at the beginning of the week, driven by recession fears and hopes cut short that the White House could reconsider their position in trade policies over the weekend.
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GBP/USD pukes as US tariffs spark fears of a recession.Sterling also falls as investors increase the chances of a BoE cut in May.Traders are eyeing Fed’s minutes and US CPI data.The Pound Sterling plunges over 100 pips or 0.90% against the Greenback at the beginning of the week, driven by recession fears and hopes cut short that the White House could reconsider their position in trade policies over the weekend. The GBP/USD trades at 1.2763 after hitting a daily high of 1.2933.GBP/USD sinks to 1.2763 as risk aversion return due to fake tariff pause headlinesRisk aversion keeps the Greenback bid on Monday. News that the White House is mulling a 90-day pause in tariffs for all nations except China, revealed by US advisor Hassett, triggered a recovery in the GBP/USD, which was short-lived, as Trump revealed that he “did not say this.” Additionally, CNBC revealed that it was “fake news.”Uncertainty keeps traders uneasy as US stocks have turned green recently. In the FX space, safe-haven peers are leading the gains, although traders should be aware that equities are also recovering.Aside from this, data remains in the backseat with a scarce economic docket in the UK. Nevertheless, traders ramped up their bets that the Bank of England (BoE) would cut rates by 25 basis points in May.Source: Prime Market TerminalAcross the pond, the US economic calendar is absent, yet traders are awaiting the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and inflation data.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decrease from 2.8% to 2.6% year-over-year (YoY). Core CPI is projected to dip from 3.1% to 3%. An upward surprise in the data could deepen the global stocks’ rout, after Fed Chair Powell revealed last Friday the US central bank is in no rush to reduce borrowing costs.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/USD has cleared the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.2810 and is aiming to challenge the 50-day SMA at 1.2730. If surpassed, the next target would be the 1.2700 mark, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2627. In the surprising case of Sterling’s recovery, the first resistance would be 1.2800, followed by the 200-day SMA. Further upside is seen at 1.2900.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
17:39 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers strongly above $30 as Fed dovish bets swell
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up almost 2.4% near $30.30 during North American trading hours on Monday.
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Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
17:29 WH Economic Adviser Hassett: Trump is considering a 90-day pause in tariffs for all except China
Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), told CNBC on Monday that US President Donald Trump is considering a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China, as reported by Reuters.
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Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), told CNBC on Monday that US President Donald Trump is considering a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China, as reported by Reuters.Market reactionThese comments seem to be helping the risk mood recover. Following a bearish opening to the day, the Nasdaq Composite was last seen trading flat. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was down 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was losing 0.85%.The US Dollar (USD) struggles to benefit from this headline. As of writing, the USD Index was up 0.2% on the day at 103.10. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
16:55 USD/CAD trades higher around 1.4260 as Canadian Dollar underperforms
The USD/CAD pair rises to near 1.4260 during North American trading hours on Monday. The Loonie pair gains as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces selling pressure amid growing expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could continue reducing interest rates this year.
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The Loonie pair gains as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces selling pressure amid growing expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could continue reducing interest rates this year.A fresh escalation in BoC dovish bets has been prompted by weak employment data for March, released on Friday. Statistics Canada reported that the workforce saw a reduction of 32.6 workers, while economists expected the economy to have added 12K new job-seekers. The Unemployment Rate accelerated to 6.7%, as expected. Additionally, Average Hourly Wages decelerated at a faster pace to 3.5%. Such a scenario boosts the need for further monetary policy easing by the BoC.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground after remaining significantly volatile in the last few trading sessions. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers its intraday losses and flattens to near 103.00.However, the outlook of the US Dollar remains uncertain as the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump has dampened the domestic outlook. Financial market participants have become increasingly confident that Trump's tariffs could lead to an economic recession as their impact will be majorly borne by US importers.On Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell also warned that protectionist policies by US President Trump could result in a resurgence in inflation and slower economic growth.This week, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
16:55 EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic: Offered zero-for-zero tariffs to US for cars and all industrial goods
European Union trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Monday that a range of tariffs is hitting 380 billion Euros worth of EU exports of the US. "Some 70% of our total exports are facing tariffs," he added.
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European Union trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Monday that a range of tariffs is hitting 380 billion Euros worth of EU exports of the US. "Some 70% of our total exports are facing tariffs," he added.Key takeaways"We have offered to US zero-for-zero tariffs for cars and all industrial goods.""EU remains open to and strongly prefers talks but we will not wait endlessly.""After carefully reviewing options, we will send the final list and tariff levels to member states today."Market reactionEUR/USD struggles to gain traction following these comments and was last seen losing 0.18% on the day at 1.0945. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
16:25 GBP edges slightly lower – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies. Markets price in more BoE easing risk"UK PM Starmer’s response to trade tensions appears to be centered around domestic measures targeting regulation reforms and tax breaks for sectors impacted by the US tariffs. Rate expectations have also shifted, with markets moving to price a full 25bpt for the BoE’s May 8 meeting, adding about 5bpts over the past week or so. The loss of rate support adds to near-term downside risk for GBP.""GBP/USD’s sharp reversal of last week’s rally delivered a break of its one-month range and a push to fresh local lows in the mid/lower-1.28s. The RSI has drifted below 50, in bearish territory, and there doesn’t appear to be any clear support ahead of the lower 1.27s."
16:23 EUR gains modestly in tight range – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating within a relatively tight range around the mid-1.09s and strengthening modestly vs. the USD, outpacing all the G10 currencies apart from the havens JPY and CHF.
Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating within a relatively tight range around the mid-1.09s and strengthening modestly vs. the USD, outpacing all the G10 currencies apart from the havens JPY and CHF. Sentiment continues to dominate as markets focus on trade tensions and assess the risks and implications of retaliatory measures, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR awaits EU retaliation"European trade ministers are meeting on Monday and headlines have hinted to the possibility of both concessions as well as a more aggressive response, risking a tit-for-tat escalation. In terms of fundamentals, the recovery in US yields is eroding some of the EURs’ support and offering up the potential for near-term weakness.""EUR/USD is still consolidating last week’s gains and trading in a relatively tight range roughly bound between support just below 1.09 and resistance above 1.11. Momentum is bullish but fading and the RSI is offering negative divergence, in that it failed to confirm last week’s fresh highs in spot."
16:21 Japan PMI Ishiba: Will continue to push US to review tariff policies
Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that the told United States (US) President Donald Trump in a video meeting that Japan has made the biggest investment in the US for five straight years, per Reuters.
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Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that the told United States (US) President Donald Trump in a video meeting that Japan has made the biggest investment in the US for five straight years, per Reuters.Ishiba added that they will continue to push the US to review the tariff policies and noted that he is considering visiting the US at the appropriate time to have a direct talk with Trump.Market reactionThese comments failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in USD/JPY. At the time of press, the pair was down 0.3% on the day at 146.60. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
16:19 CAD holds range ahead of BoC Business Outlook Survey – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is remarkably stable considering the carnage playing out in stocks. Spot has held a tight range close to Friday’s closing level throughout Asian and European trade.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is remarkably stable considering the carnage playing out in stocks. Spot has held a tight range close to Friday’s closing level throughout Asian and European trade. Heightened stock volatility is playing into the CAD’s fair value estimate more obviously now, with equilibrium moving back up to 1.4133 today, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD little changed on the day"That still leaves the CAD trading a bit cheap but the deviation from the equilibrium estimate has been falling over the past week. The BoC’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey is likely to make for soft reading today as businesses mull the implications of US tariffs. Soft jobs data Friday added to near-term BoC easing expectations but the Bank may need more time to consider growth/inflation risks before deciding on whether to cut.""USD/CAD price action was neutral Friday as the USD formed an inside range pattern. Intraday price trends remain neutral but a weak downtrend in the USD continues to develop, with the intraday and daily DMIs tilting USD-bearish for the first time since September. Spot gains appear to be stalling around 1.4270, ahead of key resistance at 1.4400/20. Support is 1.4025/30 and (major) 1.3940/50."
16:15 USD mixed amid ongoing stock market weakness – Scotiabank
Stocks screens are a sea of red as investors register deepening concerns over the impact of US tariffs on the global economy. Are countries rushing to offer the US concessions on trade? So far, it seems only Vietnam and Cambodia have started talks to lift levies.
Stocks screens are a sea of red as investors register deepening concerns over the impact of US tariffs on the global economy. Are countries rushing to offer the US concessions on trade? So far, it seems only Vietnam and Cambodia have started talks to lift levies. More ominously, China has retaliated and the Eurozone is set to do likewise this week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD mixed as stock market rout extends"The president dismissed market volatility over the weekend, as did Treasury Sec. Bessent, suggesting the slide in stocks will not sway policy. But market losses are significant. The S&P 500 lost 9% over Thursday and Friday and futures are down 2.5% this morning; the index is nearing “bear market” territory. Recession risks are rising—Wall St banks are upping their recession probability estimates—and stocks may have further to fall to fully price in that eventuality." "Swaps are pricing in more likelihood of the Fed easing—even though Fed Chair Powell said there was no need to rush after the stronger than expected US jobs data Friday. Markets are pricing in 50% chance of a May cut (from 30% last week) by the Fed and are starting to price in the risk of a larger than 25bps cut by June. While stocks are very weak, bonds are mixed, with 10Y US Treasury yields up 1bp on the day while Bunds yields are down 5bps." "FX feels relatively sheltered despite the stock plunge. The core majors are largely holding recent ranges but high beta FX is underperforming today again. The AUD is 0.3% weaker (after falling 5% Friday alone in its biggest 1-day move outside of the GFC period since the exchange rate started to float in the early 1980s). The MXN is down 1.5%. The CHF and JPY are outperforming. It’s a quiet day for data releases, ahead of the latest US inflation (CPI, PPI) reports later this week. Stock market developments will remain the primary focus for markets in the short run."
16:13 WH Trade Adviser Navarro: Any talk of recession seems silly given expected tax cuts
White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC on Monday that countries seeking a tariff relief need to lower non-tariff barriers, per Reuters.
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White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC on Monday that countries seeking a tariff relief need to lower non-tariff barriers, per Reuters.Key takeaways"Any talk of recession seems silly given expected tax cuts.""When you ask whether US President Donald Trump is willing to negotiate, the president is always willing to listen.""Methodology for tariff calculations was sound.""We want fairness from trading partners.""Tariffs will pay for the biggest tax cut in the American history.""The market will find a bottom.""We want auto parts made in the US.""EU needs to drop non-tariff barriers, including value-added tax."Market reactionThe US Dollar Index stays in daily range following these comments and was last seen trading virtually unchanged 102.92. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
15:56 EC President von der Leyen: We are ready to negotiate with US on tariffs
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday that they are ready to negotiate with the United States on tariffs, per Reuters.
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday that they are ready to negotiate with the United States on tariffs, per Reuters.Key takeaways"We are ready for a good deal but ready to take counter measures.""Will set up import surveillance task force.""We will strengthen single market in response to US tariffs.""We will focus like laser beam on the 83 pct of global trade that is beyond the US."Market reactionEUR/USD edged slightly higher following these comments and was last seen trading at 1.0980, where it was up 0.15% on a daily basis. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
15:34 WH Economic Adviser Hasset: Trump will listen to trading partners if they offer really great deals
In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), said that US President Donald Trump is doubling down on something he knows works and added that Trump will listen to trading partners if they offer "really great deals," per Reuters.
In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), said that US President Donald Trump is doubling down on something he knows works and added that Trump will listen to trading partners if they offer "really great deals," per Reuters. "Trump will decide if trade deals are great enough," Hassett further explained and noted that Trump has talked to world leaders over the weekend.Market reactionThese comments don't seem to be helping the market mood improve in a noticeable way. At the time of press, US stock index futures were down between 2.6% and 3.1%.
14:53 WTI plunges to near $60 on fears of global economic turmoil
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recovers some intraday losses in European trading hours on Monday after sliding extensively to near $58.80 earlier in the day, the lowest level seen in four years. The Oil price is still 3% down near $60.40, at the time of writing.
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The Oil price is still 3% down near $60.40, at the time of writing.The black gold is facing significant selling pressure since the first day of April as financial market participants are worried about the global economic outlook after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump on Wednesday. Trump swept almost half of tariffs on his trading partners of what they charge from the US in addition to a universal 10% baseline import duty.The scenario is unfavorable for the Oil demand outlook as investors expect higher tariffs by the US and likely countermeasures by other nations will be inflationary and weigh on the global economic productivity.The imposition of worse-than-expected levies by Trump on his Asian peers, such as China and India, appears to be a major blow to the Oil price. The US has imposed a total of 54% duty on China, totalling 34% reciprocal tariff, 20% levy for pouring fentanyl into the American economy. It is worth mentioning that China is the largest importer of Oil in the world. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
14:43 US Dollar recovers further with DXY back above 103.00
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, recovers initial losses and trades near 103.00 at the time of writing on Monday after an earliest move lower.
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Equities are plunging over 3% to 5% lower on average. The US Dollar Index trades near 103.00 and sees a technical rejection play out. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, recovers initial losses and trades near 103.00 at the time of writing on Monday after an earliest move lower. Markets were selling the US Dollar again as Equities, Yields and precious metals dropped lower. The concern comes after US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he will be sticking to his tariffs plan, while financial backer and billionaire Bill Ackman warned the President that he is losing business leaders’ confidence. On the economic front, all eyes will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this week. The March inflation gauge will be the first release where some impact from the Trump administration might already be expected. In several weekly summaries issued on social media, the White House proclaims that Trump has successfully lowered prices on all food items, such as eggs or petrol at the pump. This can be seen and proven by the upcoming CPI release on Thursday. Daily digest market movers: Soft start of the weekAt 15:30 GMT, the US Treasury will launch a 3-month and a 6-month bill. Founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Pershing Square Capital Management William Albert Ackman asked President Trump on the social media platform X to pause the current trade tariffs in order to first broker a trade deal. Ackman warns that Trump is losing business leaders' confidence, Reuters reports. Ackman is considered as one of his most significant financial contributors in both terms. Red numbers not been seen for a long time in the Equity markets, with the Chinese Hang Seng closing off at -13%, European indexes facing on average more than 6% drops, and US futures trying to salvage the situation by only correcting around 3%.The CME FedWatch tool sees chances for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in May standing at 46.2%, shooting up from 33.3% on Friday as rate cut bets grow. For June, a rates-remaining-steady scenario is out of the options. Only rate cuts are being penciled in with a 53.5% chance of policy rate being cut to the 3.75%-4.00% range from the current 4.25%-4.50%.The US 10-year yields trade around 3.95%, off its fresh five-month low at 3.85%. The next low to be considered comes in at 3.69%, last seen at the beginning of October 2024.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Recovery rejectedA firm technical rejection unfolded in the DXY index at the start of the week in early Monday. The recovery on Friday could not cross back to the 103.18 pivotal level. Unfortunately, that is where the recovery stopped, meaning that 103.18 on is a level which US Dollar bears are heavily defending. The first level to watch out for is thus 103.18, which was held as support throughout March and triggered a technical rejection on Friday. Above there, the 104.00 round level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.87 come into play. On the downside, 101.90 is the first line of defense and it should be able to trigger a bounce as it has been able to hold the last two trading days. Maybe not on Monday, but in the coming days, a break below 101.90 could see a leg lower towards 100.00. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
14:23 Global investors reconsider their faith in the dollar’s safe haven status – Commerzbank
The Federal Reserve finds itself in a tough spot as it navigates rising inflation and slowing growth.
The Federal Reserve finds itself in a tough spot as it navigates rising inflation and slowing growth. Traditional safe haven flows into the US dollar may falter, with investors eyeing alternatives like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Dollar's safe haven status may be at risk"That is the tricky thing about this kind of growth weakness, which is currently to be expected for the US: the Fed's reaction is hampered by the fact that it also has to keep inflation under control. It has to maneuver between the recession rock and the inflation hard place. This is a significant difference to 'normal' recession phases, in which the Fed was able to concentrate on one task.""If it can't, a recession typically turns out to be more severe. And the recovery is slower. This should be kept in mind when thinking about the USD reactions. The US dollar has been a 'safe haven' mainly because the US has usually recovered from recessions faster than other major developed economies. This time it could be different.""The rationale that makes them 'safe havens' still applies: because both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan are already keeping their key rates at low levels, their scope for interest rate cuts in the event of a global recession would be limited – and with it their ability to weaken their own currencies."
14:18 Consequences for the USD exchange rates are reversed – Commerzbank
A reasonably normal tariff policy would cause the dollar to appreciate. Why? Because US consumers would prefer to consume US goods instead of imported goods, and US companies would prefer to install US machinery. After all, no tariffs would have to be paid on that.
A reasonably normal tariff policy would cause the dollar to appreciate. Why? Because US consumers would prefer to consume US goods instead of imported goods, and US companies would prefer to install US machinery. After all, no tariffs would have to be paid on that. This means that demand for US goods would increase, as would their price relative to foreign goods, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Tariffs don’t seem to strengthen the USD"This can happen in two ways: larger numbers on price tags in the US (i.e. US inflation) or a stronger US dollar. The US Federal Reserve would have the choice between the two alternatives because it is the Fed that controls price developments. And because the Fed is generally assumed to want to keep inflation at 2%, the logical conclusion from the market's perspective was that the US tariff policy would strengthen the USD." "But it gets worse. These sudden interest-rate cut expectations don't just appear out of thin air. They reflect the anticipation of a massive negative real economic shock as a result of US tariff policy. I suspect that most market participants expect the US economy to slide into a recession as a result of the tariffs.""The economic 'story' that the market is telling us with these two-track inflation expectations is that a recession or recession-like conditions will cause US demand to slump to such an extent that the initial increase in costs resulting from tariffs will be more than offset in the medium term. If that were to happen, the tariffs' medium-term price effect would evaporate – along with any reason for a stronger US dollar."
14:09 Financial Stability Board nominates BoE Governor Bailey as next chair
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) announced on Monday that they nominated Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey as the next chair of the organization.
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The Financial Stability Board (FSB) announced on Monday that they nominated Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey as the next chair of the organization.The FSB said that the Nomination Committee Unanimously agreed to recommend Bailey to serve a three-year term starting in July."It is at times like this that the stability of the financial system is put to the test," Bailey said.Market reactionMarkets showed no immediate reaction to this development. At the time of press, the UK's FTSE 100 Index was down 3.5% on the day and GBP/USD pair was losing 0.5% at 1.2830. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
14:05 USD/CAD holds on to Friday’s gains – BBH
USD/CAD is holding on to Friday’s gains, BBH FX analysts report.
USD/CAD is holding on to Friday’s gains, BBH FX analysts report. US trade war dos not bode well for CAD"The severe negative impact of the US tariffs on the Canadian economy and lower crude oil prices do not bode well for CAD. Bank of Canada (BOC) Q1 business outlook survey will be reported today (3:30pm London)." "Initial results from recent BOC surveys indicated that trade uncertainty was already prompting businesses to revise down their sales outlooks. Many businesses also reported scaling back their investment plans and hiring intentions. Markets are pricing in 70% odds of a follow-up 25bps BOC policy rate cut at the next meeting April 16 and 75bps of total easing over the next 12 months."
13:56 US Pres. Trump: Slow moving Fed should cut rates
"Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is no inflation, and the long time abused USA is bringing in billions of dollars a week from the abusing countries on tariffs that are already in place," US President Donald Trump poste
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"Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is no inflation, and the long time abused USA is bringing in billions of dollars a week from the abusing countries on tariffs that are already in place," US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday.This is despite the fact that the biggest abuser of them all, China, whose markets are crashing, just raised its tariffs by 34%, on top of its long term ridiculously high tariffs, not acknowledging my warning for abusing countries not to retaliate," Trump added.Market reactionThe US Dollar (USD) showed no immediate reaction to these remarks. At the time of press, the USD Index was virtually unchanged on the day at 102.90. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
13:52 AUD/USD rebounds to near 0.6040 as China vows stimulus to support economy
The AUD/USD pair bounces back to near 0.6040 in Monday’s European session from the fresh five-year low of 0.5930 posted earlier in the day.
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The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens after China’s top officials consider accelerating monetary stimulus to stabilize their markets in the face of fresh tariffs announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump on Wednesday.China’s attempt to stimulate their economic growth bodes well for the Australian Dollar, given Australia’s high dependency on exports to them.However, the outlook of the Australian economy remains uncertain as Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that the nation expects “big hits to us and Chinese growth”. Also, a swift acceleration in Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dovish bets due to Trump’s tariffs could dampen the AUD’s performance.US President Trump has announced 54% reciprocal tariffs on China in an attempt to fix a significant budget deficit. This has led to a trade war between the two as China has also proposed a 34% import duty on the US as a countermeasure.Additionally, Trump is reluctant to negotiate with Chinese officials to ease tariffs that are resulting in further escalation in trade tensions between the two. "They want to talk, but there’s no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis," Trump said over the weekend.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) demonstrates high volatility as investors expect Trump's tariffs to lead to a US economic recession this year. Analysts at JP Morgan expect the US economy to end the year with a 0.3% decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
13:45 Oil: There's nobody around to catch a falling oil price – Danske Bank
The oil price sell-off has accelerated since Friday as the trade war deepened and the risk of a recession in the US rose, Danske Bank's FX analyst Frederik Romedahl reports.
The oil price sell-off has accelerated since Friday as the trade war deepened and the risk of a recession in the US rose, Danske Bank's FX analyst Frederik Romedahl reports.Oil price sell-off accelerates"OPEC+ decision Thursday effectively means there is no longer anybody around to catch a falling oil price. Hence, if other big countries retaliate this week and/or it becomes clear that the US goes ahead with it planned large scale tariff hike, the oil price could easily drop below USD60/bbl and further."
13:41 Energy: Oil pricing in big demand hit – ING
Oil prices have had their worst week since October 2023, with risk assets getting hit by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the retaliation we have started to see towards them. China retaliated on Friday with a 34% tariff on all imports from the US.
Oil prices have had their worst week since October 2023, with risk assets getting hit by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the retaliation we have started to see towards them. China retaliated on Friday with a 34% tariff on all imports from the US. ICE Brent settled almost 11% lower last week to trade down to the mid-$60s. This weakness has only continued in early morning trading today, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Market is pricing in a significant demand hit"The scale of tariffs, combined with the decision from OPEC+, clearly took speculators by surprise. This is reflected in the ferocity of the sell-off in oil and the fact that speculators increased their net long ahead of the tariff announcement on 2 April. The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 56,112 lots to 318,182 lots as of last Tuesday. This move was driven by fresh longs entering the market. Clearly, they have since exited the market.""The scale of the sell-off suggests the market is pricing in a significant demand hit as recession fears grow. Current price levels imply a demand hit in the region of 1m b/d for the remainder of this year, which would leave oil demand flat year-on-year.""The move in the market is also likely to lead to a severe slowdown in drilling activity in the US. While Baker Hughes data shows that the oil rig count increased by five over the last week, this will quickly reverse at current price levels. The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows that US producers need, on average, $65/bbl to profitably drill a new well, compared to a spot WTI price of a little over $60/bbl, while forward prices are sub-$60/bbl."
13:36 NOK: Vulnerable to the liquidity shock – ING
After the Australian dollar, the Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G10 currency over the last week, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
After the Australian dollar, the Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G10 currency over the last week, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. NOK/JPY can make a break towards the 12.00 area"It has taken a big hit both from the fall in oil prices (an OPEC+ supply increase was a big shock) and the fact that Norwegian interest rates have some of the furthest fall to given the previously hawkish stance of Norges Bank. What may well impact the NOK as well is declining liquidity." "This generalised rise in volatility, increasing investors' value-at-risk metrics and forcing deleveraging, will impact FX liquidity. The NOK traditionally performs very poorly in illiquid environments, which could be the story this week.""Expect investors (those with the ability to establish new positions) to be looking at a pair like NOK/JPY. Were things to get really ugly this week in financial markets, NOK/JPY could make a break towards the 12.00 area."
13:31 Gold extends correction as trade war selloff intensify
Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers and trades near $3,030 at the time of writing on Monday after falling 2% intraday in early trading as the trade war spirals out of control.
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Looking up, a double resistance sits around the $3,060 area, with $3,057 as a technical level and the Daily Pivot at $3,063. Should that level be broken down, the road is open for the intraday R1 resistance at $3,111. Further up, the current all-time high can be seen as the last upside level for now at $3,167.On the downside, the pivotal level at $3,004 and the S1 support at $2,990 have been torn down briefly. Clearly, many buyers were interested in scooping up Gold at these levels. Should Gold fall back below $3,000, the pivotal level at $2,955 and the S2 support at $2,942 should be able to refrain Gold from falling below $2,940.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Looking up, a double resistance sits around the $3,060 area, with $3,057 as a technical level and the Daily Pivot at $3,063. Should that level be broken down, the road is open for the intraday R1 resistance at $3,111. Further up, the current all-time high can be seen as the last upside level for now at $3,167.On the downside, the pivotal level at $3,004 and the S1 support at $2,990 have been torn down briefly. Clearly, many buyers were interested in scooping up Gold at these levels. Should Gold fall back below $3,000, the pivotal level at $2,955 and the S2 support at $2,942 should be able to refrain Gold from falling below $2,940.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
13:30 US/global recession risk drive the USD/CAD for now – Danske Bank
USD/CAD had an eventful start to April, dropping to the 1.40 level following broad USD weakness sparked by Trump's tariffs on Liberation Day, Danske Bank's FX analyst Frederik Romedahl reports.
USD/CAD had an eventful start to April, dropping to the 1.40 level following broad USD weakness sparked by Trump's tariffs on Liberation Day, Danske Bank's FX analyst Frederik Romedahl reports.Waiting for the next BoC meeting "The cross concluded the week higher, around 1.42. Looking ahead, April features more event risks. On April 16, the BoC meeting takes place, during which a new MPR will also be published. Following the much weaker-than-expected Canadian job data on Friday, markets are now pricing in 13bp worth of cuts compared to 5bp before the release." "Hence, we are likely in for yet another close call as has the been the case over the past half-year. April wraps up with the federal election on April 28. Retaliating against Trump's tariffs, Liberal PM Carney stands as the favourite to win the election, with prediction markets assigning a 72% probability of Carney clinching the victory.""Importantly, Trump's tariffs and market perceptions of US/global recession risk will be the primary drivers of USD/CAD in the short term."
13:26 USD: Too much baggage – ING
Weekend press reports and TV interviews suggest US President Donald Trump is not yet ready to be swayed from his mission to reset the global trading system.
Weekend press reports and TV interviews suggest US President Donald Trump is not yet ready to be swayed from his mission to reset the global trading system. Asian equities are off 6-10%, and this global trade war is proving the great leveller for global interest rates, where market interest rates are converging lower. Very much in focus is the Federal Reserve. The market now prices 110bp of Fed cuts this year and a low point for the easing cycle down at 3.00% next year, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.USD remains fragile and a 102-103 range"The ongoing carnage in equity markets continues to favour defensive positioning. Liquidity is important here, but so is the balance of payments (BoP) picture in that your country does not want to be heavily dependent on foreign capital. Here, the dollar gets marked down on its 4% current account deficit and the view that foreign investors will pull capital or certainly raise FX hedge ratios on longer-term/stickier investments in the US. As to whether Washington policy is triggering a 'sell America' mentality, there are no clear signs of that yet.""We are also watching to see whether, as one of our traders puts it, this political crisis turns into a financial crisis. For example, US high yield credit spreads are widening sharply, and there's a risk some skeletons are discovered in the financial closet. To that end, keep close watch of the EUR/USD three-month cross-currency basis swap. Any sharp widening in favour of the USD would be a sign of trouble and could briefly send the dollar higher before the Fed is forced to step in.""In general, expect the JPY and CHF to be favoured, EM currencies and commodity FX to be hit hard and probably the dollar to trade somewhere in between. DXY is heavily weighted towards Europe – a loser in a trade war. The yen only has a 14% weight. Overall, we think the dollar remains fragile and a 102-103 range may ultimately resolve in a breakdown to 100 – either if the Fed comes on board with easing or a 'sell America' mentality emerges. The wild card is the USD funding story."
13:11 EUR/USD to trade at 1.11 in a month – Danske Bank
We are revising our EUR/USD forecast higher to reflect a material shift in the structural drivers, Danske Bank's FX analyst Frederik Romedahl reports.
We are revising our EUR/USD forecast higher to reflect a material shift in the structural drivers, Danske Bank's FX analyst Frederik Romedahl reports. Europe's fiscal reform push is beginning to support sentiment"In our analysis of long-term trends in exchange rate markets, we look at especially three parameters: 1) the real rate parity, 2) the relative attractiveness of the asset market and 3) the outlook for global monetary conditions. In short, the outlook for building block 1 and 2 but potentially also 3) have turned. While a US recession in 2025 is not yet our base case, the probability has risen meaningfully — now priced at around 60% in prediction markets. This rising risk, alongside Trump's policy stance, poses a growing drag on the structural growth outlook for the US." "Policies aimed at reducing immigration, cutting federal employment (e.g. DOGE), and weakening productivity dynamics are all negative for long-term US potential growth. This points to narrower real rate differentials ahead — a fundamental shift that reduces USD support. Simultaneously, there are early but clear signs of capital rotation out of US assets. If this shift proves structural — particularly a rotation away from the US tech sector — it would mark a break from the dominant investment narrative of the past decade, with USD-negative implications." "On the EUR side, Europe's fiscal reform push is beginning to support sentiment. But the more important driver of our revised view is the growing unpredictability of US politics. With the US increasingly at odds with its allies and global institutions, we believe the relative risk premium on US assets is rising — and over time, that will weigh on the USD. In sum, we revise our EUR/USD forecast profile to 1.11 in 1M (from 1.09), 1.12 in 3M (1.08), 1.14 in 6M (1.07) and 1.14 in 12M (1.06)."
13:00 EUR/USD bounces back as Trump’s tariffs expose US economy to recession
EUR/USD reclaims the psychological level of 1.1000 in Monday’s European session after a weak opening to near 1.0880 earlier in the day.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD recovers to near 1.1000 as the US Dollar faces selling pressure, with Trump’s tariffs triggering US economic shocks.Analysts at JP Morgan expect the US economy to contract by 0.3% this year.ECB Schnabel expects more Trump tariffs to fuel uncertainty further.EUR/USD reclaims the psychological level of 1.1000 in Monday’s European session after a weak opening to near 1.0880 earlier in the day. The major currency pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) slides in a risk-averse market environment, driven by the imposition of worse-than-expected reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 104.40.Reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Trump have spooked global markets, resulting in equities melting down across the globe. However, Trump is not concerned about investors losing trillions from the world stock market and expects that higher levies will bring a lot of money to the US each year. "I don’t want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," Trump said while speaking at Air Force One over the weekend.Theoretically, the appeal of the US Dollar strengthens amid heightening global tensions, given its safe-haven status. Still, it is underperforming as Trump’s tariffs have exposed the US economy to a recession. Market experts have become increasingly concerned over the US economic outlook, assuming that the real burden of higher import duties will be on domestic importers. Investment banking firm JP Morgan has forecasted that the US economy could end the year with a 0.3% decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Also, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that the President’s protectionist policies could lead to an increase in inflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Powell still supports interest rates remaining in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% as it is “too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy."Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains as Euro outperforms A strong recovery move in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by the Euro’s (EUR) outperformance against its major peers at the start of the week. The Euro gains even though European Central Bank (ECB) officials have pushed back fears that tariff-driven inflation will be persistent in the Eurozone, allowing traders to raise bets supporting more interest rate cuts this year.ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel said at an economic forum in northern Italy over the weekend that fresh tariffs by the US have made structural economic headwinds of the Eurozone even worse. Schnabel warned that higher import duties by the US have led to a “dramatic surge in uncertainty” and should brace for more ahead.The ECB has already reduced its key borrowing rates in both of the two policy meetings this year and is also expected to cut again on April 17. The central bank is likely to continue with its gradual monetary policy easing pace, which will push the Deposit Facility rate lower to 2.25%. Such a scenario will be unfavorable for the Euro.During European trading hours, Eurostat reported that Retail Sales grew at a slower-than-expected pace on a monthly basis in February. Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.3%, slower than estimates of 0.5%, after remaining flat in January. On year, the consumer spending measure rose by 2.3%, stronger than expectations and the prior release of 2.3%.This week, the EUR/USD pair will be influenced by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Thursday.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD recovers from 1.0880EUR/USD resumes its upward journey after a healthy correction from the six-month high of 1.1145 reached on Thursday to near 1.0880 on Monday. The major currency pair rebounds as the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as major support around 1.0886. The pair aims to hold the key support of 1.0938 plotted from the November 5 high.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is intact.Looking down, the March 31 high of 1.0850 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the September 25 high of 1.1214 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
12:56 Gold prices collapse with the rest of the metal complex – ING
Gold prices tumble from record highs from earlier last week, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Gold prices tumble from record highs from earlier last week, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Trade war to continue bolstering safe-haven buying"Even Gold – traditionally a safe haven – tumbled from a record high it had reached earlier last week as investors sold off the precious metal along with other asset classes to cover losses elsewhere. Still, we believe this should be short-lived, with escalating trade actions likely to continue to bolster safe-haven buying."
12:55 Irisih Trade Minister Harris: EU has been very clear it is up for a deal
Ireland's Trade Minister Simon Harris said on Monday that “the European Union (EU) has been very clear it is up for a deal.”
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Ireland's Trade Minister Simon Harris said on Monday that “the European Union (EU) has been very clear it is up for a deal.”“All EU action aimed at creating an environment to get the US admin to the table,” the Minister added. Related news Pound Sterling weakens against US Dollar despite US economic uncertainty Full scale meltdown as market waits for someone to blink and trade tensions to resolve BoE’s Greene: Rising inflation expectations are a concern
12:55 Metal markets collapse on global growth fears – ING
Metal markets collapsed on Friday as Trump’s escalating trade war continues to fuel concerns about global growth and the demand outlook for raw materials, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Metal markets collapsed on Friday as Trump’s escalating trade war continues to fuel concerns about global growth and the demand outlook for raw materials, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Metal markets collapse "China’s retaliation on Friday with its own 34% tariffs on all imports from the US intensified the sell-off. Copper prices tumbled more than 6% on the LME, the biggest drop in five years, while prices on COMEX dropped more than 8%. Nickel prices plunged 6%, to the lowest level since 2020." "A global trade war is bearish for industrial metals in the context of slowing global growth. China is the biggest consumer of industrial metals, so a trade war with the US is of particular interest for metals markets."
12:50 EUR: Caught in the middle – ING
EUR/USD has retreated from its spike high to 1.1140 but remains in demand, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD has retreated from its spike high to 1.1140 but remains in demand, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.1.11/12 is major medium-term resistance for EUR"Supporting factors for the euro are its role as a liquid alternative to the dollar and the fact that the euro runs a 3% current account surplus. Standing against the euro is the eurozone being an open, trade-driven economy. In focus this week will be what the Europeans do when it comes to retaliation. Trade leaders are meeting in Luxembourg today. From the sounds of it, Europe is going to be far more cautious and selective than the blunt 34% reciprocal tariff announced by China on Friday." "Just quickly on China, we saw that the People's Bank of China fixed USD/CNY a little higher overnight – any fixing over 7.20 this week would drive USD/EM higher on the (likely mistaken) view that China is preparing to devalue the renminbi.""Back to the euro, this global trade war has seen the low point for the European Central Bank's easing cycle repriced closer to 1.50%. That said, EUR/USD two-year swap differentials have narrowed into levels last seen in early October and should serve to keep EUR/USD supported around 1.09 as this financial dislocation plays out. Again, 1.11/12 is major medium-term resistance, and we probably require some very negative US news to break that this week."
12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $30.02 per troy ounce, up 1.51% from the $29.58 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have increased by 3.91% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 30.02 1 Gram 0.97
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.69 on Monday, down from 102.71 on Friday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.69 on Monday, down from 102.71 on Friday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:03 Eurozone Retail Sales jump 2.3% YoY in February vs. 1.8% expected
The Eurozone’s retail sales rose 2.3% over the year in February, following a revised 1.8% growth in January, according to official data released by Eurostat on Monday. The data outpaced the market expectations for a 1.8% print.
Eurozone annual Retail Sales rose 2.3% in February.Retail Sales in the old continent arrived at 0.3% MoM in February.The Eurozone’s retail sales rose 2.3% over the year in February, following a revised 1.8% growth in January, according to official data released by Eurostat on Monday. The data outpaced the market expectations for a 1.8% print.On a monthly basis, Retail Sales in the old continent advanced by 0.3% in the same period versus January’s 0% revision while coming in below the estimated 0.5% increase.FX implicationsThe Eurozone data fail to inpire the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is trading 0.30% higher on the day at 1.0986, as of writing.
12:00 Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) up to 381.1B in March from previous 379.3B
Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) up to 381.1B in March from previous 379.3B
12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.3%)
Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.3%)
12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in February: Actual (2.3%)
Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in February: Actual (2.3%)
11:35 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence slumps to -19.5 in April
Investor sentiment in the Eurozone deteriorated in April, with the Sentix Investor Confidence Index dropping sharply to -19.5 from -2.9 in March.
Investor morale in the Euro area weakened significantly in April.EUR/USD trades below 1.1000 in the European session after the data.Investor sentiment in the Eurozone deteriorated in April, with the Sentix Investor Confidence Index dropping sharply to -19.5 from -2.9 in March. "The survey of 1,127 investors from April 3-5 showed that economic expectations for the next six months were hit particularly hard by the tariff announcement, falling by 33.8 points to -15.8 in April," Reuters reported.Market reactionEUR/USD retreats from session highs following this disappointing data. At the time of press, EUR/USD was trading marginally higher on the day at 1.0975.
11:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence fell from previous -2.9 to -19.5 in April
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence fell from previous -2.9 to -19.5 in April
11:10 Pound Sterling rebounds against US Dollar amid US economic uncertainty
The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back to near 1.2930 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session after hitting a one-month low of 1.2830 earlier in the day.
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The GBP/USD pair attracts bids as the US Dollar faces pressure due to the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, declines to near 102.40.Financial market participants have become increasingly concerned over the US economic outlook as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that larger-than-expected tariffs announced by the President could lead to a resurgence in inflation and slower economic growth. "We face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation," Powell said in his prepared remarks at the annual conference for the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing.When asked about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the monetary policy outlook, Powell continued with the “wait and see” approach and said, "The Fed is well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering policy adjustments."Meanwhile, market experts now see a greater chance that Trump’s sweeping, harsh-than-expected tariffs on US trading partners could push the US economy into a recession. Investment banking firms Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have raised the probability of the US entering a recession to 45% and 60%, respectively.This week, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Thursday. The impact of the US CPI data is expected to be limited in the US Dollar unless there is a dramatic change, as market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook will likely be driven by tariff-led consumer inflation expectations.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling demonstrates high volatility The Pound Sterling exhibits highly volatile action against its peers at the start of the week. The British currency is impacted by Trump’s tariffs-driven uncertainty that is expected to batter the United Kingdom’s (UK) economy strongly. UK firms are expected to face significant competition in the global market as business owners from nations slapped with significantly higher tariffs by the US would look for other markets for their products. Such a scenario would be unfavorable for a country that is already struggling to cope with tight financial conditions.The Bank of England (BoE) is maintaining a strict “gradual and cautious” stance on further monetary policy easing as inflationary pressures remain significantly far from the desired rate of 2%. The odds of UK inflation easing in the near term are at least as BoE officials have already warned that price pressures could accelerate before returning to the 2% path due to higher energy prices.Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has vowed to protect domestic firms from the storm of Trump tariffs. "We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm," Starmer said over the weekend, Reuters report. Starmer also indicated that he wants to strengthen alliances and reduce trade barriers.This week, investors will focus on the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the factory data for February, which will be released on Friday.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling recovers to near 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling attemps a recovery move from 1.2830 against the US Dollar on Monday after correcting sharply from the six-month high of 1.3207 posted on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 1.2930. The near-term trend will turn bullish if the pair manages to hold above the 20-day EMA.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 60.00, indicating that the bullish momentum is over. However, the bullish bias is intact until it holds the 40.00 level.Looking down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement plotted from late September high to mid-January low near 1.2770 will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the April 3 high of 1.3207 will be a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
11:00 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.
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Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $911.23 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $892.12. In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $915.75 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also up after the XPT/USD pair settled at $914.16 at the previous close.
Palladium FAQs Why do people buy Palladium?
Palladium is a rare and valuable precious metal with strong industrial demand, particularly in the automotive sector. It is widely used in catalytic converters to reduce vehicle emissions, making it essential for global environmental regulations. Investors also see palladium as a store of value, similar to gold and silver, and a potential hedge against inflation. Given its supply constraints and high demand, palladium often attracts traders looking for price volatility and profit opportunities. What is Palladium in trading?
In trading, palladium (XPD/USD) is considered both an industrial and a precious metal. It is traded on major commodity exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM). Traders speculate on palladium prices through futures contracts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and spot markets. Since palladium supply is concentrated in a few countries, particularly Russia and South Africa, geopolitical and mining disruptions can lead to significant price swings, making it an attractive asset for short-term traders and long-term investors alike. Is Palladium more expensive than Gold?
Palladium has historically been less expensive than gold, but in recent years, it has traded at a premium due to rising demand and tight supply. Prices fluctuate based on market conditions, but palladium has, at times, outperformed gold due to its critical role in the automotive industry. However, as markets shift and industrial demand changes, the price relationship between the two metals can vary. What does the price of Palladium depend on?
Palladium prices are influenced by several factors, including industrial demand, supply constraints, and macroeconomic conditions. The automotive industry is the biggest driver of demand, as stricter emissions regulations increase the need for palladium-based catalytic converters. Supply is heavily dependent on mining output from Russia and South Africa, making the metal vulnerable to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, broader market trends, such as the strength of the US dollar, interest rates, and economic growth, can impact palladium prices, as they do with other precious metals. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) prices mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
10:35 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.25 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $60.48. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $64.08 price posted on Friday, and trading at $62.78.
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia. Disclaimer: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil prices mentioned above are based on FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
10:23 China’s Foreign Ministry: Threats and pressure are not the right way to deal with China
Speaking on US tariffs, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated on Monday, “threats and pressure are not the right way to deal with China.”
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Speaking on US tariffs, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated on Monday, “threats and pressure are not the right way to deal with China.”Additional quotes"US tariffs in the name of reciprocity only serve their own interest at the expense of other countries.""It's 'typical unilateral, protectionist bullying'."This response comes in the wake of a comment made by US President Donald Trump late Sunday. Trump noted that he is not willing to make any deal with China unless the trade deficit is solved.Market reactionAt the press time, AUD/USD is losing 0.14% on the day to trade near 0.6010, having stalled its Asian recovery. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
10:07 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.
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Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 94.34, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 93.73 Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 110.62 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also advancing after the GBP/INR pair settled at 110.16 at the previous close.
Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee?
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee?
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee?
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee?
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee. Rates for Indian Rupee crosses mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
10:06 USD/CHF slumps below 0.8500 amid risk-off mood, Trump tariff fallout
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to around 0.8495 during the early European session on Monday.
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Risk-off mood and the fears of a deep economic downturn boost the Swiss Franc, a safe-haven currency. US NFP increased by 228K in March vs. 135K expected. The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to around 0.8495 during the early European session on Monday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) due to the safe-haven flows after the market panic caused by US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs deepened and increased worries of a global recession.Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump last week unveiled sweeping global tariffs on goods imported from most US trading partners The CHF has appreciated against the USD as traders consider the best options for cushioning the impact of Trump’s tariffs.Furthermore, the persistent geopolitical tensions contribute to the CHF’s upside. The Kherson regional military administration Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Sunday that Russians shelled more than 30 localities in the Kherson region, including residential areas of Kherson. Seven people were wounded. Data released by the Labor Department on Friday revealed that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 228K in March from the revised 117K in February. This reading came in stronger than the 135K expected. Meanwhile, the US Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2% in March versus 4.1% prior, higher than the 4.1% forecast. Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.3% MoM in March, in line with the market consensus.Investors wagered that the mounting risk of a deep economic downturn could pave the way for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut as early as May, which might drag the Greenback lower in the near term. However, the renewed US Dollar demand amid the oversold condition might help limit the pair’s losses for the time being. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM): -0.8% (March) vs previous -0.2%
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM): -0.8% (March) vs previous -0.2%
10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) fell from previous -0.1% to -0.2% in March
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) fell from previous -0.1% to -0.2% in March
10:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves fell from previous 753B to 726B in March
Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves fell from previous 753B to 726B in March
09:53 Forex Today: US Dollar under pressure as tariff headlines dominate markets
Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 7:
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Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 7:After staging a rebound to end the previous week, the US Dollar (USD) stays under pressure on Monday as investors scrutinize the latest developments surrounding US tariffs. Eurostat will publish Retail Sales data for February and the US economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases in the second half of the day on Monday.The upbeat March employment data from the US and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's relatively hawkish comments helped the USD stay resilient against its rivals heading into the weekend. Nevertheless, the USD Index lost more than 1% for the week still. US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.70% 0.32% -3.04% -0.46% 4.77% 2.85% -3.55% EUR 1.70% 2.16% -1.42% 1.30% 6.66% 4.67% -1.84% GBP -0.32% -2.16% -3.48% -0.79% 4.41% 2.49% -3.87% JPY 3.04% 1.42% 3.48% 2.69% 8.12% 6.14% -0.59% CAD 0.46% -1.30% 0.79% -2.69% 5.28% 3.33% -3.10% AUD -4.77% -6.66% -4.41% -8.12% -5.28% -1.85% -7.96% NZD -2.85% -4.67% -2.49% -6.14% -3.33% 1.85% -6.23% CHF 3.55% 1.84% 3.87% 0.59% 3.10% 7.96% 6.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, beating the market expectation of 135,000 by a wide margin. Later in the day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said US President Donald Trump's tariffs are bigger than expected, and they risk higher inflation and slower growth. "The Fed's obligation is to make certain that a one-time increase in price levels doesn't become an ongoing inflation problem," he added.Trump said over the weekend that unless they solve the trade deficit with China, he will not be making a deal. In the meantime, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday that the tariffs would not be postponed and the policy will remain in place for days and weeks. Related news EU’s Séjourné: List of products in EU response to US tariffs will be announced in coming days Markets in meltdown: China retaliates, US free-falls, and no one’s coming to save you Crypto market wipes out $1 billion in liquidation as Asian markets bleed red EUR/USD fell nearly 0.8% on Friday but gained about 1.2% for the week. Early Monday, the pair stays in positive territory at around 1.1000. European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras warned on Monday that Trump tariffs risk a large euro-area demand shock, per the Financial Times. Earlier in the day, the data from Germany showed that Industrial Production contracted by 1.3% on a monthly basis in February, following the 2% expansion reported in January.AUD/USD declined sharply on Friday and lost about 4% for the week. The pair extended its slide during the Asian trading hours and touched its weakest level in five years below 0.5950 before recovering to the 0.6000 area. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that the fall in the Australian Dollar (AUD) was largely a result of concerns about the Chinese economy, and added that it also reflected the fact that markets are now expecting around four interest rate cuts in Australia this calendar year.USD/JPY closed in positive territory on Friday but lost nearly 2% for the week. The pair stays under bearish pressure at the beginning of the week and trades slightly below 145.50, where it's losing more than 1% on the day. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yohsimasa Hayashi said on Monday that they are closely watching market moves with a sense of urgency. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said late Sunday that Japan would continue pressing the US to lower tariffs on Japanese goods, but acknowledged that progress was unlikely to come overnight.GBP/USD lost over 1.5% on Friday and erased all of its weekly gains. Following a bearish opening to the week, the pair recovers slightly and trades little changed on the day at around 1.2900 in the European morning.After setting a new record high midweek, Gold staged a deep correction and lost nearly 2.5% on Friday. XAU/USD declined sharply in the early Asian session on Monday and touched its weakest level since mid-March at $2,970 before rebounding above $3,000 by the European morning. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
09:38 India Gold price today: Gold extends retreat from record highs amid global sell-off
Following Friday's 3% slump in Gold price on Comex, Gold price in India remains on the losing end early Monday.
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Following Friday's 3% slump in Gold price on Comex, Gold price in India remains on the losing end early Monday.
The Gold price retreat from record highs extends amid a wider market sell-off as traders cover their losses and margin calls on other assets by liquidating their positions in the bullion.
Gold price is dropping to 8,330.45 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, at the time of writing, having closed at INR 8,373.94 last Friday.
Meanwhile, Gold price dropped to INR 97,166.22 per tola from INR 97,671.99 per tola on Friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,330.45 10 Grams 83,308.23 Tola 97,166.22 Troy Ounce 259,129.50
Global Market Movers: Gold bulls seem reluctant to place aggressive bets The widening global trade war continues to fuel concerns about a global economic recession and leads to an extended sell-off in equity markets across the world. This, in turn, prompted traders to liquidate their long positions around the Gold price and raise cash to cover losses elsewhere. According to data released this Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) added gold to its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in March. In fact, the People's Bank of China's holding rose by 0.09 million troy ounces last month amid rising global trade and geopolitical turmoil. US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods late last Wednesday, with China facing 54% levies under this new regime. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry announced on Friday that they will levy additional tariffs of 34% on all US imports. Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday that the tariffs would not be postponed and the policy would remain in place for days and weeks. Adding to this, Trump stated that there would be no deal with China unless the trade deficit is solved. The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on Friday's modest recovery move from a multi-month low that followed the release of the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In fact, the closely-watched jobs data showed that the economy added 228K jobs in March vs. 117K previous. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that that inflation is closer to target but still slightly elevated. Powell added that Trump's tariffs could have a strong inflationary impact and that the Fed's job is to avoid temporary price hikes turning into persistent inflation. Investors, however, are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and also lower borrowing costs at least four times this year. This, along with the anti-risk low, keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond below the 4.0% mark. This, in turn, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and assists the non-yielding yellow metal to stage a modest intraday bounce from a nearly four-week low touched during the Asian session on Monday. The lack of follow-through, however, warrants caution for bulls.
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
09:08 EU’s Séjourné: List of products in EU response to US tariffs will be announced in coming days
Stéphane Séjourné, the European Union (EU) Commissioner for prosperity and industrial strategy, said on Monday, “list of products in EU response to US tariffs will be announced in coming days.”
Stéphane Séjourné, the European Union (EU) Commissioner for prosperity and industrial strategy, said on Monday, “list of products in EU response to US tariffs will be announced in coming days.”Additional quotes"EU will have united position on this.""List of products in EU response to US tariffs will be announced in coming days.""Europe also has cards up its sleeve to put pressure on the US."
09:03 German Industrial Production declines 1.3% MoM in February vs. -1.1% expected
Germany’s industrial sector returned to contraction in February, according to the latest data published by Destatis on Monday.
Germany’s industrial sector returned to contraction in February, according to the latest data published by Destatis on Monday.In the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse, Industrial Output dropped 1.3% MoM, the federal statistics authority Destatis said in figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, against the expected 1.1% decline and a 2% rebound in January.
09:01 Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) declined to -4% in February from previous -1.6%
Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) declined to -4% in February from previous -1.6%
09:01 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) registered at -1.3%, below expectations (-1.1%) in February
Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) registered at -1.3%, below expectations (-1.1%) in February
09:01 Germany Imports (MoM) fell from previous 1.2% to 0.7% in February
Germany Imports (MoM) fell from previous 1.2% to 0.7% in February
09:01 South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve rose from previous $66.264B to $67.45B in March
South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve rose from previous $66.264B to $67.45B in March
09:01 South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve up to $63.167B in March from previous $61.733B
South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve up to $63.167B in March from previous $61.733B
09:00 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds above $30.00 amid global trade war
The Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers to around $30.05 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The white metal edges higher as the fear of tariff wars and the potential global recession boost the safe-haven demand.
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The concerns over tariff wars and potential global recession boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Silver price.Traders will take more cues from the US March CPI inflation data, which is due later on Wednesday. The Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers to around $30.05 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The white metal edges higher as the fear of tariff wars and the potential global recession boost the safe-haven demand. Silver price has witnessed heightened volatility since last week in response to the US imposing reciprocal trade tariffs on key trading partners. Mounting fears of recession over the impact of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs dampen market sentiment and undermine the precious metals. Furthermore, strong industrial demand, especially from new-age industries like EVs and solar energy, creates tailwinds for the white metal. Gains are also expected in the consumer electronics market, as the development of artificial intelligence systems will continue to boost product offerings. Silver generally moves with gold, but industrial applications such as electronics and photovoltaics account for more than half of world demand, which is estimated to be approximately 700.2 million troy ounces by 2024, according to the Silver Institute industry association.Traders will keep an eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for March, which will be published later on Thursday. If the report shows cooler-than-expected inflation in the US, this might lift the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
09:00 Germany Trade Balance s.a. below forecasts (€17.8B) in February: Actual (€17.7B)
Germany Trade Balance s.a. below forecasts (€17.8B) in February: Actual (€17.7B)
09:00 Germany Exports (MoM): 1.8% (February) vs -2.5%
Germany Exports (MoM): 1.8% (February) vs -2.5%
08:59 United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.2%) in March
United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.2%) in March
08:38 Gold price rebounds swiftly from multi-week low; lacks follow-through
Gold price (XAU/USD) stages a goodish intraday bounce from a three-week low, around the $2,972-2,971 region, touched during the Asian session on Monday – and spikes to a fresh daily high, around the $3,055 area in the last hour.
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Gold price (XAU/USD) stages a goodish intraday bounce from a three-week low, around the $2,972-2,971 region, touched during the Asian session on Monday – and spikes to a fresh daily high, around the $3,055 area in the last hour. Data published earlier today showed that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased its state Gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month. Adding to this, the prevalent risk-off mood, recession fears, bets that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon, and geopolitical risks act as a tailwind for the commodity.
The intraday move up, however, fades rather quickly as investors continue to unwind their XAU/USD bullish positions to cover losses from a broader sell-off across the global financial markets. Meanwhile, Friday's stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks helped the US Dollar (USD) to hold comfortably above a multi-month low touched last week. This turns out to be another factor capping the gains for the Gold price. That said, dovish Fed expectations keep the USD bulls on the defensive and assist the Gold price to hold above the $3,000 mark.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from a combination of factors; bulls seem reluctant to place aggressive betsThe widening global trade war continues to fuel concerns about a global economic recession and leads to an extended sell-off in equity markets across the world. This, in turn, prompted traders to liquidate their long positions around the Gold price and raise cash to cover losses elsewhere. According to data released this Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) added gold to its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in March. In fact, the People's Bank of China's holding rose by 0.09 million troy ounces last month amid rising global trade and geopolitical turmoil. US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods late last Wednesday, with China facing 54% levies under this new regime. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry announced on Friday that they will levy additional tariffs of 34% on all US imports.Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday that the tariffs would not be postponed and the policy would remain in place for days and weeks. Adding to this, Trump stated that there would be no deal with China unless the trade deficit is solved. The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on Friday's modest recovery move from a multi-month low that followed the release of the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In fact, the closely-watched jobs data showed that the economy added 228K jobs in March vs. 117K previous. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that that inflation is closer to target but still slightly elevated. Powell added that Trump's tariffs could have a strong inflationary impact and that the Fed's job is to avoid temporary price hikes turning into persistent inflation. Investors, however, are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and also lower borrowing costs at least four times this year. This, along with the anti-risk low, keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond below the 4.0% mark. This, in turn, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and assists the non-yielding yellow metal to stage a modest intraday bounce from a nearly four-week low touched during the Asian session on Monday. The lack of follow-through, however, warrants caution for bulls.
Gold price must surpass the $3,055 horizontal support-turned resistance to back prospects for additional gains
From a technical perspective, last week's sharp retracement slide from the all-time peak stalls ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April strong move up. The subsequent move up, however, falters near the $3,055 horizontal support breakpoint, now turned resistance. The latter should now act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders, above which the Gold price could climb to the $3,080 region en route to the $3,100 round figure.
On the flip side, the $3,000 psychological mark, which coincides with the 50% retracement level, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,972-2,971 area, or the multi-week low touched earlier this Monday. This is closely followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the $2,946 area, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for a further depreciating move. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold price (XAU/USD) stages a goodish intraday bounce from a three-week low, around the $2,972-2,971 region, touched during the Asian session on Monday – and spikes to a fresh daily high, around the $3,055 area in the last hour. Data published earlier today showed that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased its state Gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month. Adding to this, the prevalent risk-off mood, recession fears, bets that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon, and geopolitical risks act as a tailwind for the commodity.
The intraday move up, however, fades rather quickly as investors continue to unwind their XAU/USD bullish positions to cover losses from a broader sell-off across the global financial markets. Meanwhile, Friday's stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks helped the US Dollar (USD) to hold comfortably above a multi-month low touched last week. This turns out to be another factor capping the gains for the Gold price. That said, dovish Fed expectations keep the USD bulls on the defensive and assist the Gold price to hold above the $3,000 mark.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from a combination of factors; bulls seem reluctant to place aggressive betsThe widening global trade war continues to fuel concerns about a global economic recession and leads to an extended sell-off in equity markets across the world. This, in turn, prompted traders to liquidate their long positions around the Gold price and raise cash to cover losses elsewhere. According to data released this Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) added gold to its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in March. In fact, the People's Bank of China's holding rose by 0.09 million troy ounces last month amid rising global trade and geopolitical turmoil. US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods late last Wednesday, with China facing 54% levies under this new regime. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry announced on Friday that they will levy additional tariffs of 34% on all US imports.Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday that the tariffs would not be postponed and the policy would remain in place for days and weeks. Adding to this, Trump stated that there would be no deal with China unless the trade deficit is solved. The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on Friday's modest recovery move from a multi-month low that followed the release of the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In fact, the closely-watched jobs data showed that the economy added 228K jobs in March vs. 117K previous. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that that inflation is closer to target but still slightly elevated. Powell added that Trump's tariffs could have a strong inflationary impact and that the Fed's job is to avoid temporary price hikes turning into persistent inflation. Investors, however, are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and also lower borrowing costs at least four times this year. This, along with the anti-risk low, keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond below the 4.0% mark. This, in turn, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and assists the non-yielding yellow metal to stage a modest intraday bounce from a nearly four-week low touched during the Asian session on Monday. The lack of follow-through, however, warrants caution for bulls.
Gold price must surpass the $3,055 horizontal support-turned resistance to back prospects for additional gains
From a technical perspective, last week's sharp retracement slide from the all-time peak stalls ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April strong move up. The subsequent move up, however, falters near the $3,055 horizontal support breakpoint, now turned resistance. The latter should now act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders, above which the Gold price could climb to the $3,080 region en route to the $3,100 round figure.
On the flip side, the $3,000 psychological mark, which coincides with the 50% retracement level, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,972-2,971 area, or the multi-week low touched earlier this Monday. This is closely followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the $2,946 area, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for a further depreciating move. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
08:25 BoJ maintains assessment for all of Japan's nine regions
In its quarterly regional economic report published on Monday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains the assessment for all of Japan's nine regions.
In its quarterly regional economic report published on Monday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains the assessment for all of Japan's nine regions.Additional takeawaysAll regions said their economies recovering moderately or picking up, picking up moderately..Many regions said consumption on firm note for both services, consumption.Some regions said output increasing such as for automobiles.Many branches said must be vigilant to impact of trade policy as firms in their regions saw heightened uncertainty on impact to output, profits.Many branches said can expect broad range of firms in their regions to offer strong pay hikes this year.Some regions said smaller firms still cautious of pay hikes due to severe profit conditions.Many regions said pass through of high import costs continuing.Many regions seeing broadening of firms implementing or considering pass-through of expected rise in labour costs via price hikes.Some regions said some firms continuing to cut or maintain prices, increase line-up of low-price goods due to soft consumption.Market reactionUSD/JPY is back at around 146.00 following these headlines, losing 0.58% on the day.
08:02 NZD/USD remains under selling pressure near 0.5550 on Chinese tariff retaliation
The NZD/USD pair remains under selling pressure around 0.5565 during the early European session on Monday.
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China retaliated against Trump in a trade war with 34% tariffs on US imports, weighing on the China-proxy Kiwi. The RBNZ is expected to cut its OCR by 25 bps to 3.50% on Wednesday. The NZD/USD pair remains under selling pressure around 0.5565 during the early European session on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) softens against the Greenback as China slapped a 34% tax on all US imports in retaliation for US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, widening trade tensions between the United States and China. The Trump administration last week stated that the US will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States (US). China was hit hard, facing a tariff of at least 54% on many goods. Over the weekend, China announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on US imports, signaling a major escalation of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies. This, in turn, might drag the China-proxy Kiwi lower, as China is the major trading partner to New Zealand. “We are bearish on the New Zealand dollar because we consider markets have not priced enough negative impacts on the global economy from the trade war,” said Carol Kong, Sydney-based currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50% at its April meeting on Wednesday, and analysts anticipate the New Zealand central bank could make more rate cuts in 2025 as it reacts to US tariffs and their potential global economic fallout. After three straight 50 bps move, an expected quarter-point reduction may end up having little impact on the NZD since swap markets are already fully pricing in that outcome. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
08:01 Japan Leading Economic Index above forecasts (107.8) in February: Actual (107.9)
Japan Leading Economic Index above forecasts (107.8) in February: Actual (107.9)
08:01 Japan Coincident Index up to 1169 in February from previous 116.1
Japan Coincident Index up to 1169 in February from previous 116.1
08:01 Japan Coincident Index climbed from previous 116.1 to 116.9 in February
Japan Coincident Index climbed from previous 116.1 to 116.9 in February
07:28 FX option expiries for Apr 7 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 7 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Apr 7 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.0800 1.6b1.0900 838m1.0950 899m1.1000 1.5bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 146.00 2b146.50 624mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6180 417mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4200 658m1.4270 557m
07:22 ECB’s Stournaras: Trump’s tariffs could slow Euro area growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage points
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras warned on Monday, “Trump tariffs risk large euro-area demand shock,” per the Financial Times (FT).
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras warned on Monday, “Trump tariffs risk large euro-area demand shock,” per the Financial Times (FT).Additional quotes“The looming global trade war was likely to weigh heavily on Europe’s economic growth.”“The negative impact on Euro area growth “could be anything between 0.5 and 1 percentage points.“Market reactionEUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.0967, up 0.11% on the day.
06:39 USD/CAD trades with positive bias around mid-1.4200s as Oil prices tumble to multi-year low
The USD/CAD pair attracts some follow-through buying for the second consecutive day on Monday and looks to build on last week's modest recovery from the 1.4030-1.4025 region or year-to-date low.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD attracts some buyers for the second straight day amid a combination of supporting factors. Tumbling Oil prices, domestic political uncertainty, and Friday's dismal jobs data undermine the Loonie.The risk-off mood benefits the USD's relative safe-haven status and also acts as a tailwind for the pair.
The USD/CAD pair attracts some follow-through buying for the second consecutive day on Monday and looks to build on last week's modest recovery from the 1.4030-1.4025 region or year-to-date low. Spot prices currently trade around mid-1.4200s, up nearly 0.25% for the day, though bulls might wait for a sustained strength beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh amid mixed fundamental cues.
Crude Oil prices slump to a four-year low amid growing concerns that US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs would trigger an all-out global trade war and weaken fuel demand. Moreover, eight OPEC+ members unexpectedly advanced their plan to phase out production cuts, sparking oversupply concerns and further weighing on the black liquid. Apart from this, political uncertainty ahead of the Canadian snap election on April 28, along with Friday's disappointing domestic employment data, undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, the risk of a further escalation of US-Canada trade tensions suggests that the path of least resistance for the currency pair is to the upside. In fact, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday that the previously announced retaliatory tariffs will remain in effect and that Canada will impose 25% tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA trade deal. This, along with the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying following the Asian session dip, turns out to be another factor offering additional support to the USD/CAD pair.
The USD preserves Friday's modest recovery gains from a multi-month low on the back of stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks. Adding to this, the prevalent risk-off environment is seen benefiting the Greenback's relative safe-haven status. Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, still seems elusive in the wake of bets that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown might force the Fed to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, in turn, might keep a lid on the USD/CAD pair, warranting caution for bulls. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The USD/CAD pair attracts some follow-through buying for the second consecutive day on Monday and looks to build on last week's modest recovery from the 1.4030-1.4025 region or year-to-date low. Spot prices currently trade around mid-1.4200s, up nearly 0.25% for the day, though bulls might wait for a sustained strength beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh amid mixed fundamental cues.
Crude Oil prices slump to a four-year low amid growing concerns that US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs would trigger an all-out global trade war and weaken fuel demand. Moreover, eight OPEC+ members unexpectedly advanced their plan to phase out production cuts, sparking oversupply concerns and further weighing on the black liquid. Apart from this, political uncertainty ahead of the Canadian snap election on April 28, along with Friday's disappointing domestic employment data, undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, the risk of a further escalation of US-Canada trade tensions suggests that the path of least resistance for the currency pair is to the upside. In fact, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday that the previously announced retaliatory tariffs will remain in effect and that Canada will impose 25% tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA trade deal. This, along with the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying following the Asian session dip, turns out to be another factor offering additional support to the USD/CAD pair.
The USD preserves Friday's modest recovery gains from a multi-month low on the back of stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks. Adding to this, the prevalent risk-off environment is seen benefiting the Greenback's relative safe-haven status. Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, still seems elusive in the wake of bets that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown might force the Fed to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, in turn, might keep a lid on the USD/CAD pair, warranting caution for bulls. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
06:35 Treasurer Chalmers: Expect Australian GDP to take a hit due to Trump’s tariffs
Commenting on the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Monday, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that he expected the economy to take a hit.
Commenting on the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Monday, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that he expected the economy to take a hit.Key quotes"Fall in Australian Dollar (AUD) largely as a result of concerns about Chinese economy.""Also reflects the fact that markets are now expecting around four interest rate cuts in Australia this calendar year.""Direct impact of tariffs on the Australian economy manageable.""We expect big hits to us and Chinese growth."Expect Australian GDP to take a hit.""Spoke to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock to compare notes on expectations."Market reactionDespite these discouraging comments, AUD/USD holds its recovery mode above 0.6000, still losing 0.33% on the day.
06:21 Japanese Yen trims a part of modest gains against USD; bullish potential seems intact
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a positive note as US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs raise the risk of a global economic slowdown and continue to underpin traditional safe-haven assets.
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a positive note as US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs raise the risk of a global economic slowdown and continue to underpin traditional safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, concerns that harsher US reciprocal tariffs could negatively impact Japan's economy forced investors to scale back their bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would raise the policy rate at a faster pace. This, in turn, acts as a headwind for the JPY and assists the USD/JPY pair to reverse an Asian session dip back closer to a six-month low – levels below the 145.00 psychological mark – touched on Friday.
However, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ interest rate hikes in 2025. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions should limit any meaningful depreciating move for the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to capitalize on Friday's positive move amid bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), fueled by concerns about a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown. This, along with a further steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields, should act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY and cap any meaningful recovery move for the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen struggles to lure buyers as traders scale back bets for an early BoJ interest rate hikeAsian stock markets and US equity futures tumbled at the start of a new week amid growing concerns about a widening global trade war and the mounting risk of recession. US President Donald Trump late last Wednesday imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and higher duties on some of the country's biggest trading partners. In response, the European Union is all set to join China and Canada in imposing retaliatory tariffs. Investors scaled back their bets for early interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan amid concerns that harsher-than-expected US tariffs could negatively impact Japan's economy. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said this Monday that US tariffs are expected to have a big impact on Japan-US economic relations. This, in turn, fails to assist the safe-haven Japanese Yen to capitalize on its modest Asian session gains. Meanwhile, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said late Sunday that the country would continue pressing the US to lower tariffs on Japanese goods, but acknowledged that progress was unlikely to come overnight. Ishiba added that he is aiming to have a call with Trump this week and also emphasized the importance of domestic support measures in the meantime. This, however, does little to impress the JPY bulls. The US Dollar preserves Friday's modest recovery gains led by the stronger-than-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the economy added 228,000 new jobs in March as compared to the 135,000 market expectations and the previous month's downwardly revised reading of 117,000.Powell acknowledged that Trump's tariffs could have a stronger-than-anticipated inflationary and economic impact, though policy changes remain on hold for now. Powell stated that inflation is closer to target but still slightly elevated and that the Fed’s job is to avoid temporary price hikes turning into persistent inflation. The Fed is monitoring uncertainty from the Trump administration's trade policies, Powell added further. Market participants, however, seem convinced that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle at the June policy meeting and lower borrowing costs at least four times by the end of this year to bail out the economy. This, along with the anti-risk flow, drags the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond further below the 4.0% mark and might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets.
USD/JPY is likely to attract fresh sellers at higher levels and remain capped near the 147.70 hurdle
From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown and acceptance below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-March positive move was seen as a fresh trigger for the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. Hence, any subsequent recovery beyond the 147.00 mark (61.8% Fibo. level) might be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 147.70 region. This is followed by the 148.00 round figure, which if cleared decisively might trigger a near-term short-covering rally.
On the flip side, the 146.00 mark, followed by the 145.45 region, the 145.00 psychological mark Asian session low, around the 144.80 region, and a multi-month trough, around the 144.55 region touched on Friday, could act as immediate support levels. Some follow-through selling below the latter will reaffirm the negative bias and make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the downfall further toward the 144.00 round figure. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a positive note as US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs raise the risk of a global economic slowdown and continue to underpin traditional safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, concerns that harsher US reciprocal tariffs could negatively impact Japan's economy forced investors to scale back their bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would raise the policy rate at a faster pace. This, in turn, acts as a headwind for the JPY and assists the USD/JPY pair to reverse an Asian session dip back closer to a six-month low – levels below the 145.00 psychological mark – touched on Friday.
However, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ interest rate hikes in 2025. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions should limit any meaningful depreciating move for the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to capitalize on Friday's positive move amid bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), fueled by concerns about a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown. This, along with a further steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields, should act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY and cap any meaningful recovery move for the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen struggles to lure buyers as traders scale back bets for an early BoJ interest rate hikeAsian stock markets and US equity futures tumbled at the start of a new week amid growing concerns about a widening global trade war and the mounting risk of recession. US President Donald Trump late last Wednesday imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and higher duties on some of the country's biggest trading partners. In response, the European Union is all set to join China and Canada in imposing retaliatory tariffs. Investors scaled back their bets for early interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan amid concerns that harsher-than-expected US tariffs could negatively impact Japan's economy. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said this Monday that US tariffs are expected to have a big impact on Japan-US economic relations. This, in turn, fails to assist the safe-haven Japanese Yen to capitalize on its modest Asian session gains. Meanwhile, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said late Sunday that the country would continue pressing the US to lower tariffs on Japanese goods, but acknowledged that progress was unlikely to come overnight. Ishiba added that he is aiming to have a call with Trump this week and also emphasized the importance of domestic support measures in the meantime. This, however, does little to impress the JPY bulls. The US Dollar preserves Friday's modest recovery gains led by the stronger-than-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the economy added 228,000 new jobs in March as compared to the 135,000 market expectations and the previous month's downwardly revised reading of 117,000.Powell acknowledged that Trump's tariffs could have a stronger-than-anticipated inflationary and economic impact, though policy changes remain on hold for now. Powell stated that inflation is closer to target but still slightly elevated and that the Fed’s job is to avoid temporary price hikes turning into persistent inflation. The Fed is monitoring uncertainty from the Trump administration's trade policies, Powell added further. Market participants, however, seem convinced that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle at the June policy meeting and lower borrowing costs at least four times by the end of this year to bail out the economy. This, along with the anti-risk flow, drags the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond further below the 4.0% mark and might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets.
USD/JPY is likely to attract fresh sellers at higher levels and remain capped near the 147.70 hurdle
From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown and acceptance below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-March positive move was seen as a fresh trigger for the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. Hence, any subsequent recovery beyond the 147.00 mark (61.8% Fibo. level) might be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 147.70 region. This is followed by the 148.00 round figure, which if cleared decisively might trigger a near-term short-covering rally.
On the flip side, the 146.00 mark, followed by the 145.45 region, the 145.00 psychological mark Asian session low, around the 144.80 region, and a multi-month trough, around the 144.55 region touched on Friday, could act as immediate support levels. Some follow-through selling below the latter will reaffirm the negative bias and make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the downfall further toward the 144.00 round figure. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
06:06 WTI tumbles to a four-year low near $60.00 amid Trump’s tariff woes
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.30 during the early Asian session on Monday. The WTI price falls to its lowest point since April 2021 amid the fears that US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would push the United States (US) into a recession.
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Economic uncertainty and recession fears trigger WTI price decline. OPEC+ decided to raise crude oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.30 during the early Asian session on Monday. The WTI price falls to its lowest point since April 2021 amid the fears that US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would push the United States (US) into a recession.Traders worry about an escalating trade war from Trump’s global tariffs, which will sharply slow economic growth and raise fears of a slowdown in economic activity both in the US and globally. This, in turn, continues to undermine the WTI price. The tariffs, which are set to take effect this week, “would likely push the US and possibly the global economy into recession this year,” according to JPMorgan analysts. A surprise output increase by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) contributes to the WTI’s downside. OPEC+ announced plans to increase output, aiming to return 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd. Oil traders will closely monitor the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for March, which is due later on Thursday. Any signs of cooler inflation in the US could weigh on the Greenback and provide some support to the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
05:34 USD/INR gains ground as Trump-induced tariffs storm intensifies
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades in negative territory on Monday. The local currency remains under pressure after US President Donald Trump unveiled a bigger-than-expected wall of tariffs around the world's largest economy, upending trade and supply chains.
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Investors will monitor how trade tariffs affect foreign exchange markets. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) amid expectations that monetary policy may turn more supportive as tariffs threaten to hurt economies globally.Indian Rupee loses traction as Trump tariffs shock continuesThe HSBC final India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, improved to 58.5 in March from a preliminary estimate of 57.5. The HSBC Indian Composite PMI rose to 59.5 in March, compared to a preliminary reading of 58.6. Trump said last week that he would impose a 26% tariff on imports from India effective from April 9, a component of his comprehensive plan to place duties on all US imports.US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 228,000 in March from the revised 117,000 in February, according to the Labor Department on Friday. This figure came in stronger than the 135,000 expected. The US Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% in March versus 4.1% prior, higher than the 4.1% forecast. Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.3% MoM in March, in line with the market consensus, while the annual rate of Average Hourly Earnings rose 3.8%, the lowest level since July 2024.Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that inflation is likely to pick up because of Trump’s sweeping tariffs and could remain elevated.USD/INR’s outlook remains bearish under the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee weakens on the day. However, in the longer term, the bearish outlook of the USD/INR pair remains in place as the price is below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The downward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 38.90, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
The initial support level for USD/INR is located at 85.20, the low of April 3. Extended losses could see a drop to the 85.00 psychological level. The additional downside filter to watch is 84.84, the low of December 19.
On the upside, the 100-day EMA at 85.87 acts as an immediate resistance level for the pair. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round mark.
Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
Investors will monitor how trade tariffs affect foreign exchange markets. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) amid expectations that monetary policy may turn more supportive as tariffs threaten to hurt economies globally.Indian Rupee loses traction as Trump tariffs shock continuesThe HSBC final India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, improved to 58.5 in March from a preliminary estimate of 57.5. The HSBC Indian Composite PMI rose to 59.5 in March, compared to a preliminary reading of 58.6. Trump said last week that he would impose a 26% tariff on imports from India effective from April 9, a component of his comprehensive plan to place duties on all US imports.US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 228,000 in March from the revised 117,000 in February, according to the Labor Department on Friday. This figure came in stronger than the 135,000 expected. The US Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% in March versus 4.1% prior, higher than the 4.1% forecast. Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.3% MoM in March, in line with the market consensus, while the annual rate of Average Hourly Earnings rose 3.8%, the lowest level since July 2024.Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that inflation is likely to pick up because of Trump’s sweeping tariffs and could remain elevated.USD/INR’s outlook remains bearish under the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee weakens on the day. However, in the longer term, the bearish outlook of the USD/INR pair remains in place as the price is below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The downward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 38.90, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
The initial support level for USD/INR is located at 85.20, the low of April 3. Extended losses could see a drop to the 85.00 psychological level. The additional downside filter to watch is 84.84, the low of December 19.
On the upside, the 100-day EMA at 85.87 acts as an immediate resistance level for the pair. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round mark.
Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:20 Japan’s Hayashi: Closely watching market moves with a sense of urgency
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yohsimasa Hayashi said on Monday that he is “closely watching market moves with a sense of urgency.”
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yohsimasa Hayashi said on Monday that he is “closely watching market moves with a sense of urgency.”Additional quotes"Share prices are determined by various factors including economic situation, corporate activity.""US tariffs expected to bring big impact to Japan-US economic relations.""Will continue to urge us to review tariff measures."Market reactionUSD/JPY was last seen trading at 146.42, still down 0.11% on the day.
05:17 PBOC boosts Gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month
The latest data published by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday showed that the Chinese central bank increased its state Gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month.
The latest data published by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday showed that the Chinese central bank increased its state Gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month.China's Gold reserves stood at $229.59 billion at end-March, compared to $208.64 billion at end-February.Additional details"China gold reserves 73.70 million (mln) fine troy oz at end-March vs. 73.61 mln troy oz at end-February.""China FX reserves $3.241 trillion (trln) at end-March vs. $3.227 trln at end-February."Market reactionGold price catches a fresh bid on the above headlines, regaining $3,050 at the time of writing, up 0.50% on the day.
04:31 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements climbed from previous -1.4% to 0.4% in March
Australia ANZ Job Advertisements climbed from previous -1.4% to 0.4% in March
04:27 EUR/USD flat lines above mid-1.0900s, investors seem non-committed amid rising trade tensions
The EUR/USD pair reverses an Asian session dip to the 1.0880 aera and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the vicinity of mid-1.1100s, or the highest level since September touched last week.
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The EUR/USD pair reverses an Asian session dip to the 1.0880 aera and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the vicinity of mid-1.1100s, or the highest level since September touched last week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0960 region, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed cues.
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on Friday's recovery from a six-month low and kicks off the new week on a weaker note amid bets that the US economy could enter a recession and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle. In fact, the markets are now pricing in the possibility that the Fed will deliver four quarter-basis-points rate cuts in 2025. This, along with the global flight to safety, leads to a further steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields depressed, which, in turn, undermines the USD and lends some support to the EUR/USD pair.
Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bullish bets around the shared currency amid the risk of a further escalation of a trade war between the US and the European Union (EU). The 27-nation bloc faces 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminum and cars, and reciprocal tariffs of 20% for almost all other goods. Furthermore, the European Commission will propose late on Monday a list of US products to be hit with extra duties in response to Trump's levies. This, along with the global carnage, could support the safe-haven buck and cap the EUR/USD pair.
Moving ahead, traders now look forward to the release of German Industrial Production and Trade Balance data, followed by the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. The focus, however, will remain glued to trade-related developments, which will play a key role in influencing the broader risk sentiment and driving the USD demand. This, in turn, might provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair and assist traders to grab short-term opportunities. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The EUR/USD pair reverses an Asian session dip to the 1.0880 aera and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the vicinity of mid-1.1100s, or the highest level since September touched last week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0960 region, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed cues.
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on Friday's recovery from a six-month low and kicks off the new week on a weaker note amid bets that the US economy could enter a recession and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle. In fact, the markets are now pricing in the possibility that the Fed will deliver four quarter-basis-points rate cuts in 2025. This, along with the global flight to safety, leads to a further steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields depressed, which, in turn, undermines the USD and lends some support to the EUR/USD pair.
Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bullish bets around the shared currency amid the risk of a further escalation of a trade war between the US and the European Union (EU). The 27-nation bloc faces 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminum and cars, and reciprocal tariffs of 20% for almost all other goods. Furthermore, the European Commission will propose late on Monday a list of US products to be hit with extra duties in response to Trump's levies. This, along with the global carnage, could support the safe-haven buck and cap the EUR/USD pair.
Moving ahead, traders now look forward to the release of German Industrial Production and Trade Balance data, followed by the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. The focus, however, will remain glued to trade-related developments, which will play a key role in influencing the broader risk sentiment and driving the USD demand. This, in turn, might provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair and assist traders to grab short-term opportunities. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1980 vs. 7.1889 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1980 as compared to last Thursday's fix of 7.1889 and 7.3162 Reuters estimate.
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On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1980 as compared to last Thursday's fix of 7.1889 and 7.3162 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:08 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attracts some sellers below $3,000 as Trump's tariffs hit
The Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure to around $2,985 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by some profit-taking.
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The recent sharp sell-off in the US stock market on Friday was about raising cash to cover margin calls after US President Donald Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs on goods from many countries. However, the downside for the yellow metal might be limited due to the supportive fundamentals. “Bargain hunters will rush in next week to buy cheap gold and silver, helping the precious metals to rally again,” said Rich Checkan, chairman and CEO of Asset Strategies International.
Additionally, the global economic uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. Russians shelled more than 30 localities in the Kherson region, including residential areas of Kherson. Seven people were wounded, the Kherson regional military administration's Oleksandr Prokudin reported. Despite the volatility," gold is still a safe-haven place for many investors," said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The recent sharp sell-off in the US stock market on Friday was about raising cash to cover margin calls after US President Donald Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs on goods from many countries. However, the downside for the yellow metal might be limited due to the supportive fundamentals. “Bargain hunters will rush in next week to buy cheap gold and silver, helping the precious metals to rally again,” said Rich Checkan, chairman and CEO of Asset Strategies International.
Additionally, the global economic uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. Russians shelled more than 30 localities in the Kherson region, including residential areas of Kherson. Seven people were wounded, the Kherson regional military administration's Oleksandr Prokudin reported. Despite the volatility," gold is still a safe-haven place for many investors," said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
03:49 GBP/USD bounces off one-month low, defends 200-day SMA and retakes 1.2900
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.2830 region, or over a one-month low touched during the Asian session on Monday and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from a six-month peak touched last week.
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The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.2830 region, or over a one-month low touched during the Asian session on Monday and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from a six-month peak touched last week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2900 round figure, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction amid the gloomier global economic outlook.
US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs announced last Wednesday fueled worries about the widening trade war, which, in turn, could dent the global. This continues to weigh heavily on investors' sentiment and is evident from a sea of red across the global equity markets. This is seen benefiting the US Dollar's (USD) relative safe-haven status against its British counterpart and acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.
The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets amid the rising bets that a tariff-driven slowdown in the US business activity might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, the markets are now pricing in the possibility that the Fed will deliver four quarter-basis-points rate cuts in 2025. This, along with the anti-risk flow, leads to a steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields and undermines the USD.
The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, seems to draw support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower borrowing costs more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside. Even from a technical perspective, a bounce from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support favors the GBP bulls and validates the positive outlook. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.2830 region, or over a one-month low touched during the Asian session on Monday and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from a six-month peak touched last week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2900 round figure, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction amid the gloomier global economic outlook.
US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs announced last Wednesday fueled worries about the widening trade war, which, in turn, could dent the global. This continues to weigh heavily on investors' sentiment and is evident from a sea of red across the global equity markets. This is seen benefiting the US Dollar's (USD) relative safe-haven status against its British counterpart and acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.
The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets amid the rising bets that a tariff-driven slowdown in the US business activity might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, the markets are now pricing in the possibility that the Fed will deliver four quarter-basis-points rate cuts in 2025. This, along with the anti-risk flow, leads to a steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields and undermines the USD.
The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, seems to draw support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower borrowing costs more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside. Even from a technical perspective, a bounce from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support favors the GBP bulls and validates the positive outlook. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
03:32 Japan’s Ishiba seeks for broad deal with US over tariffs
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said late Sunday that Japan would continue pressing the United States to lower tariffs on Japanese goods, but acknowledged that progress was unlikely to come overnight. Ishiba has said he is aiming to have a call with Trump this week.
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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said late Sunday that Japan would continue pressing the United States to lower tariffs on Japanese goods, but acknowledged that progress was unlikely to come overnight. Ishiba has said he is aiming to have a call with Trump this week. He said Japan’s proposal may involve liquefied natural gas, cars, agriculture and national security, according to local media.
Ishiba emphasized the importance of domestic support measures in the meantime. “The government must take steps to support funding for domestic firms and maintain employment,” Ishiba said.
Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 1.09% lower on the day to trade at 145.40. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Ishiba emphasized the importance of domestic support measures in the meantime. “The government must take steps to support funding for domestic firms and maintain employment,” Ishiba said.
Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 1.09% lower on the day to trade at 145.40. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
03:17 Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy: Russian military strikes energy facility in Kherson
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Sunday that the Russian military struck an energy facility in Kherson on Friday. Russians shelled more than 30 localities in the Kherson region, including residential areas of Kherson.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Sunday that the Russian military struck an energy facility in Kherson on Friday.
Russians shelled more than 30 localities in the Kherson region, including residential areas of Kherson. Seven people were wounded, the Kherson regional military administration Oleksandr Prokudin reported.Key quotesThe US is close to taking steps to pressure Russia into adhering to a cease-fire
there is no sense for Ukraine to have direct talks with Russia unless it adheres to the unconditional cease-fire.
Met with French and British military choose to discuss foreign contingent appointment.
Military working to convene weekly to work on plan for contingent.
It should take no longer than one month to reach understanding on a plan for the appointment of the contingent.
US tariffs are not a problem for Ukraine due to small level of trade.
Ukraine's proposals for new draft minerals deal with US will be ready next week. Market reactionAt the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 1.92% lower on the day to trade at $2,979. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Russians shelled more than 30 localities in the Kherson region, including residential areas of Kherson. Seven people were wounded, the Kherson regional military administration Oleksandr Prokudin reported.Key quotesThe US is close to taking steps to pressure Russia into adhering to a cease-fire
there is no sense for Ukraine to have direct talks with Russia unless it adheres to the unconditional cease-fire.
Met with French and British military choose to discuss foreign contingent appointment.
Military working to convene weekly to work on plan for contingent.
It should take no longer than one month to reach understanding on a plan for the appointment of the contingent.
US tariffs are not a problem for Ukraine due to small level of trade.
Ukraine's proposals for new draft minerals deal with US will be ready next week. Market reactionAt the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 1.92% lower on the day to trade at $2,979. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
02:53 US President Donald Trump says not making a deal with China unless solving trade deficit
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that unless the China trade deficit is solved, there will be no deal, according to Reuters.
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US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that unless the China trade deficit is solved, there will be no deal, according to Reuters.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday that the tariffs would not be postponed and the policy will remain in place for days and weeks.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that more than 50 nations have approached the administration for negotiations but cautioned, “They’ve been bad actors for a long time, and it’s not the kind of thing you can negotiate away in days or weeks.”Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.44% on the day at 102.89. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday that the tariffs would not be postponed and the policy will remain in place for days and weeks.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that more than 50 nations have approached the administration for negotiations but cautioned, “They’ve been bad actors for a long time, and it’s not the kind of thing you can negotiate away in days or weeks.”Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down 0.44% on the day at 102.89. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
02:50 Japan JP Foreign Reserves increased to $1272.5B in March from previous $1253.3B
Japan JP Foreign Reserves increased to $1272.5B in March from previous $1253.3B
02:31 AUD/USD tumbles to a five-year low below 0.6000 amid US-China tariffs war
The AUD/USD pair tumbles to near 0.5985 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic during the early Asian session on Monday.
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China announced last Friday that it will impose a 34% tax on all US imports, taking effect Thursday, as part of a retaliatory reaction to Trump's tariffs. This marks Beijing's toughest retaliation to the American leader's trade war. The concerns over trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy as China is a major trading partner to Australia.
Data released by the Labor Department on Friday showed that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was stronger than expected in March, rising by 228,000 from the revised 117,000 in February. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% in March versus 4.1% prior, higher than the 4.1% forecast.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials might wait until June to start cutting interest rates after the employment report showed stronger than expected jobs growth last month that eased concern about the state of the labor market. Still, the markets continue to price a full percentage point of Fed rate cuts by year-end and some chance of a fifth cut. The rising bets for more Fed rate reductions could weigh on the Greenback and might help limit the pair’s losses. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
China announced last Friday that it will impose a 34% tax on all US imports, taking effect Thursday, as part of a retaliatory reaction to Trump's tariffs. This marks Beijing's toughest retaliation to the American leader's trade war. The concerns over trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy as China is a major trading partner to Australia.
Data released by the Labor Department on Friday showed that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was stronger than expected in March, rising by 228,000 from the revised 117,000 in February. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% in March versus 4.1% prior, higher than the 4.1% forecast.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials might wait until June to start cutting interest rates after the employment report showed stronger than expected jobs growth last month that eased concern about the state of the labor market. Still, the markets continue to price a full percentage point of Fed rate cuts by year-end and some chance of a fifth cut. The rising bets for more Fed rate reductions could weigh on the Greenback and might help limit the pair’s losses. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
02:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) meets forecasts (3.1%) in February
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) meets forecasts (3.1%) in February
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
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