Forex News Timeline

Saturday, April 12, 2025

On Thursday, April 10, Banco de Mexico (Banxico) released its latest meeting minutes, in which all board members stated that the Mexican economy is slowing down amid an evolving disinflation process, which paves the way for further easing.

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Majority of board members said the economy is expected to show increased slack.
Most board members said MXN trading conditions remained orderly and even showed improvements during the period.
Majority stated balance of risks to economic activity is biased to the downside.
Most indicated that risks to downside for inflation have gained relevance.
Majority of board said the expected weakness of economic activity and greater slack conditions will contribute to continuation of disinflation process.
One board member said flash estimate for February suggests the contraction will extend to that month.
A scenario of high and permanent tariffs on all US imports from Mexico is unlikely to materialize.USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlookEven though the USD/MXN remains upwardly biased, a drop below the 20.30 area could pave the way for further losses. The next key support level lies at 20.00, followed by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.83. If surpassed, the next stop would be 19.50. Conversely, a bullish continuation looms if buyers push the pair past the 20.50 area, with the 21.00 figure next. Banxico FAQs What is the Bank of Mexico? The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%. How does the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy influence the Mexican Peso? The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor. How often does the Bank of Mexico meet during the year? Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.  

The Mexican Peso ends the week on a higher note as the Greenback weakens across the board. The China-US trade war escalated, with China retaliating against US President Trump’s latest tariffs announcement. The USD/MXN trades at 20.27, down 0.72%.

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The China-US trade war escalated, with China retaliating against US President Trump’s latest tariffs announcement. The USD/MXN trades at 20.27, down 0.72%.The financial markets' narrative remains around tariffs. China’s answer to US 145% was known early in the North American session, with Beijing applying 125% duties on US products. After the headline, the buck plunged sharply, as revealed by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks its performance against a basket of six other currencies. The DXY reached an over 30-month low of 99.01. As of writing, the DXY is at 99.87, down more than 1%.Mexico’s Industrial Production improved in February, revealed the Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática (INEGI). Meanwhile, Banco de Mexico (Banxico)'s last meeting minutes revealed that all its members said the economy is decelerating and the disinflation process has evolved.Regarding tariffs, Mexican products outside of the USMCA trade agreement remain subject to 25% duties, despite the 90-day pause on other countries, revealed a White House official.Data from the United States (US) revealed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) dipped compared to February’s data. The Core PPI cooled as well but remained above the 3% threshold.Other data showed that the Consumer Sentiment deteriorated sharply and inflation expectations rose.Although the USD/MXN is dropping, further upside is seen. Banxico is expected to lower rates at the upcoming meeting. In contrast, the Fed would likely hold rates unchanged at the May meeting, with investors seeing the first cut in July.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso unfazed by high US yields, risk aversionINEGI revealed that Mexico's Industrial Production in February rose by 2.5% MoM, up from a -0.6% contraction in January. In the twelve months to February, production improved from a -2.9% contraction to -1.3% YoY.Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja appeared before the Senate. She said the Government Board is still unsatisfied with the inflation rate, which stood at 3.8% YoY in March, though far from the 3% target. She added that the disinflation process and the economic slowdown justify Banxico’s dovish approach and hinted that the central bank might continue easing policy.US Consumer Sentiment fell sharply in April, with the University of Michigan Index dropping from 57.0 to 50.8. Inflation expectations jumped, with the 1-year outlook rising from 5% to 6.7% and the 5-year from 4.1% to 4.4%.US March PPI eased to 2.7% YoY, below the 3.3% forecast and down from 3.2%, signaling softer input costs.Core PPI held firm at 3.3% YoY, down from 3.5%, yet still above the 3% threshold.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso appreciates as USD/MXN falls beneath 20.50The USD/MXN uptrend remains in play, though sellers stepped in, dragging the spot price below the 20.50 figure. Towards the end of the session, bears drove the exchange rate below the confluence of the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) near 20.33/36, which, if surpassed, clears the floor to test 20.00.Conversely, if USD/MXN climbs past the April 9 daily peak of 21.07, the pair could be poised to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high of 21.28. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The NZD/USD pair extended its advance on Friday’s session with the pair seen trading near the 0.5800 zone after a 1.39% daily rise. This move positioned price mid-range between the day’s low of 0.56282 and high of 0.57656, reinforcing a bullish short-term momentum shift.

NZD/USD trades near the 0.5800 zone after strong gains on FridayResistance aligns with 200-day SMA near 0.5895The NZD/USD pair extended its advance on Friday’s session with the pair seen trading near the 0.5800 zone after a 1.39% daily rise. This move positioned price mid-range between the day’s low of 0.56282 and high of 0.57656, reinforcing a bullish short-term momentum shift.Still, the underlying trend is showing signs of strength, especially from the shorter-term averages. The 10-day exponential moving average at 0.56685 and the 10-day simple moving average at 0.56688 support the upward action. The 20-day SMA at 0.57156 and 100-day SMA at 0.57072 also lean bullish. However, traders should remain cautious of the 200-day SMA at 0.58946, which may cap further advances in the near term.Looking ahead, support levels are seen at 0.57156, 0.57072, and 0.57068, while resistance stands at 0.57479, 0.58405, and the critical 0.58946. A daily close above the latter could cement a more sustained bullish phase.
Daily chart

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strengthening on Friday, with the pair moving near the 0.6280 zone during the American session.

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strengthening on Friday, with the pair moving near the 0.6280 zone during the American session. The bullish tone for the Aussie emerges as the US Dollar (USD) continues to weaken across the board, dragged by lower-than-expected economic data and growing investor concern over inflation and trade policy. While momentum is cautiously improving, the broader trend remains technically bearish, with resistance zones limiting additional upside for now.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar drops on consumer gloom and tariff falloutThe US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to weaken, sliding toward the 100 area and marking fresh three-year lows during Friday’s trade.April’s University of Michigan sentiment survey missed expectations, while soft PPI figures revived disinflation concerns.Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers remain cautious, warning that while core inflation expectations are still stable, tariff-driven price pressures may persist longer than anticipated.President Trump reiterated his confidence in reaching a deal with China, although tariffs remain elevated—145% on Chinese imports and 10% across the board for other nations.Fed’s Musalem and Williams noted that a potential shift in long-term inflation expectations could limit the Fed’s policy options in the coming quarters.

Technical analysis
AUD/USD extends its recovery for a third straight session, approaching the upper range of its daily movement, with price action contained between 0.6180 and 0.6287. Despite today’s upward push, the overall technical structure remains fragile.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints around 50, neutral but leaning bullish as it rises steadily. Meanwhile, the MACD still signals weakness, printing a fresh red bar, indicating sellers haven’t exited entirely. The Ultimate Oscillator and Stochastic readings remain neutral, suggesting the trend lacks strong conviction.From a trend-following standpoint, all major moving averages continue to point downward. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, along with the 30-day EMA, all confirm lingering bearish pressure. Key resistance levels are noted at 0.6244, 0.6261, and 0.6262, while support is seen at 0.6236, 0.6215, and 0.6180. A break above the 0.6260 area could open room for a stronger bullish correction, though the technical bias remains cautious for now.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

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